Oil prices slid on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil entering global markets.
Both benchmarks had settled higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ alliance raised expectations of tighter supply. However, optimism was tempered by the ongoing ceasefire talks that have investors bracing for a potential surge in Russian exports if negotiations bear fruit.
A U.S. delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday in an effort to advance discussions toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following talks with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday. Analysts noted that expectations of progress in peace negotiations, along with the possibility of easing U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, weighed on prices.
“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. He added that investors remain cautious, holding back on large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.
OPEC+—the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—recently issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to implement further output cuts to offset excess production. This move is expected to more than offset planned monthly production hikes from the group starting next month. Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong observed, “Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors.”
Since 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to support market stability. On March 3, the group confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, citing stronger market fundamentals.
Market participants are also monitoring the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran announced last week. While these sanctions have heightened supply risks for Iranian oil, leading to an expected near-term decline in shipments to China and increased shipping costs, some traders anticipate that buyers will find workarounds to maintain at least partial volume flows.
As geopolitical developments continue to influence supply and demand dynamics, investors remain vigilant, balancing the potential for increased Russian oil exports against the backdrop of broader market uncertainties.
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One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a fresh attack on Riyadh's international airport on Sunday, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed by Yemen's Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
Yemen's Houthis renewed warning to airlines, airport workers, and travellers against using Saudi airports, saying the warning should be taken seriously and that the kingdom “bore responsibility for failed interceptions”, a day after an attack on Riyadh's international airport that killed 12 people.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said late Monday that it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi group toward Khamis Mushait in southwestern Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi movement has escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting the airport in Riyadh and other cities, killing more than a dozen people.
The Kremlin on Monday rejected a 60-day ceasefire idea proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow his country to hold presidential elections, saying it wanted an overall peace deal instead.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia hit at least six energy targets in deadly strikes across Ukraine, showing Moscow is unwilling to accept the energy ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg joined high school students protesting outside a school in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis on Tuesday, as a wave of student demonstrations continues across France.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited a newly opened defence museum displaying weapons developed under his leadership, including an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States.
Southeast Asian foreign ministers are set to discuss measures to tackle transboundary haze during preparatory meetings ahead of the ASEAN summit in November, as forest and land fires in Indonesia continue to affect air quality across the region, the Philippines said on Tuesday.
Britain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the United Kingdom believes Iran was likely behind an alleged plot connected to RAF Fairford, a military airbase in Gloucestershire in England that has played a role in U.S. operations against Iran, escalating tensions between London and Tehran.
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