Oil prices slid on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil entering global markets.
Both benchmarks had settled higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ alliance raised expectations of tighter supply. However, optimism was tempered by the ongoing ceasefire talks that have investors bracing for a potential surge in Russian exports if negotiations bear fruit.
A U.S. delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday in an effort to advance discussions toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following talks with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday. Analysts noted that expectations of progress in peace negotiations, along with the possibility of easing U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, weighed on prices.
“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. He added that investors remain cautious, holding back on large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.
OPEC+—the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—recently issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to implement further output cuts to offset excess production. This move is expected to more than offset planned monthly production hikes from the group starting next month. Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong observed, “Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors.”
Since 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to support market stability. On March 3, the group confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, citing stronger market fundamentals.
Market participants are also monitoring the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran announced last week. While these sanctions have heightened supply risks for Iranian oil, leading to an expected near-term decline in shipments to China and increased shipping costs, some traders anticipate that buyers will find workarounds to maintain at least partial volume flows.
As geopolitical developments continue to influence supply and demand dynamics, investors remain vigilant, balancing the potential for increased Russian oil exports against the backdrop of broader market uncertainties.
Hamas has signaled acceptance of a Gaza ceasefire plan put forward by mediators Egypt and Qatar, according to the group’s chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya. In a televised speech on Saturday, al-Hayya stated that Hamas had received the proposal two days prior and responded positively.
Israel has launched a series of airstrikes on Gaza, following the collapse of negotiations to extend a ceasefire. The strikes have resulted in significant casualties, while efforts to resume peace talks remain stalled.
Ukraine’s acceptance of a U.S. ceasefire proposal has salvaged its strained ties with Washington, securing the resumption of military aid and intelligence sharing. However, fundamental issues in the conflict with Russia remain unresolved.
World leaders welcomed the 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine has agreed to, calling it a step toward ending the conflict with Russia.
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Far-right leader Jordan Bardella has called for nationwide protests after a court banned Marine Le Pen from holding office for five years over EU fund misuse. Le Pen, a top contender for the 2027 election, vowed to appeal, calling the ruling politically motivated. A poll shows most French citizens s
Germany's Interior Minister Nancy Faeser claims success in tackling irregular immigration, highlighting a rise in deportations and a decrease in asylum claims. With coalition talks underway, the SPD and conservatives remain divided over immigration policy.
Kazakhstan’s foreign minister met with the EU’s special representative for Central Asia to discuss investment, trade, and regional cooperation. Both sides emphasized digitalization, climate policy, and infrastructure projects, reaffirming their commitment to deeper economic ties.
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Azerbaijan is rising as a global leader in pomegranate production and export, with Forbes highlighting its ideal climate, government support, and growing international demand. With premium-quality produce and sustainable farming, Azerbaijan is shaping the future of the global pomegranate market.
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