Oil prices dip as ceasefire talks prompt market caution

Oil prices slid on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil entering global markets.

Both benchmarks had settled higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ alliance raised expectations of tighter supply. However, optimism was tempered by the ongoing ceasefire talks that have investors bracing for a potential surge in Russian exports if negotiations bear fruit.

A U.S. delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday in an effort to advance discussions toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following talks with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday. Analysts noted that expectations of progress in peace negotiations, along with the possibility of easing U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, weighed on prices.

“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. He added that investors remain cautious, holding back on large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.

OPEC+—the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—recently issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to implement further output cuts to offset excess production. This move is expected to more than offset planned monthly production hikes from the group starting next month. Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong observed, “Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors.”

Since 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to support market stability. On March 3, the group confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, citing stronger market fundamentals.

Market participants are also monitoring the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran announced last week. While these sanctions have heightened supply risks for Iranian oil, leading to an expected near-term decline in shipments to China and increased shipping costs, some traders anticipate that buyers will find workarounds to maintain at least partial volume flows.

As geopolitical developments continue to influence supply and demand dynamics, investors remain vigilant, balancing the potential for increased Russian oil exports against the backdrop of broader market uncertainties.

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