Oil prices slid on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil entering global markets.
Both benchmarks had settled higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ alliance raised expectations of tighter supply. However, optimism was tempered by the ongoing ceasefire talks that have investors bracing for a potential surge in Russian exports if negotiations bear fruit.
A U.S. delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday in an effort to advance discussions toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following talks with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday. Analysts noted that expectations of progress in peace negotiations, along with the possibility of easing U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, weighed on prices.
“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. He added that investors remain cautious, holding back on large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.
OPEC+—the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—recently issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to implement further output cuts to offset excess production. This move is expected to more than offset planned monthly production hikes from the group starting next month. Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong observed, “Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors.”
Since 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to support market stability. On March 3, the group confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, citing stronger market fundamentals.
Market participants are also monitoring the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran announced last week. While these sanctions have heightened supply risks for Iranian oil, leading to an expected near-term decline in shipments to China and increased shipping costs, some traders anticipate that buyers will find workarounds to maintain at least partial volume flows.
As geopolitical developments continue to influence supply and demand dynamics, investors remain vigilant, balancing the potential for increased Russian oil exports against the backdrop of broader market uncertainties.
A Turkish-owned cargo ship was struck by a drone in the Black Sea after leaving a Ukrainian port, in the latest incident to raise concerns over the sa...
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has promised that the U.S. will “pay the price” following what Iranian authorities said was a...
Russia has extended its ban on exports of gasoline, diesel, marine fuel and gasoil until 31 January 2027, as Moscow seeks to stabilise its domestic fu...
Saudi Arabia said its overnight strikes on Iran-backed group targets in Iraq were carried out in self-defence and warned it would take further military action if the groups launched new attacks against the kingdom.
The U.S. military said it completed its latest wave of strikes on Iran, a two-hour operation that hit dozens of targets. Washington described the strikes as a "powerful response" to Iranian missile attacks targeting U.S. forces in the Middle East a day earlier.
Thousands of migrants have crossed into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta from Morocco, overwhelming border security and prompting local authorities to call for a national emergency and military deployment.
A fire involving two gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port has prompted conflicting reports over whether the incident was caused by a drone strike or an onboard technical fault. Egyptian authorities said there were no casualties.
The death toll from the powerful earthquake that struck Japan’s southwestern Kumamoto prefecture has risen to 30, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Thursday, as water and power shortages left survivors exposed to extreme summer heat.
Thousands of people spent the night on beaches, waiting by fences or wading through the sea in the hope of reaching Europe, as an estimated 49,000 migrants crossed into Spain's enclave of Ceuta in just 24 hours.
Carlos Cordeiro, senior adviser to FIFA president Gianni Infantino, has resigned with immediate effect in protest over proposals to sell a stake in the FIFA World Cup, calling the plan "a bad deal for football."
Ukraine targeted a warehouse belonging to Russia’s largest retailer, Wildberries, and an oil refinery overnight, while Moscow said its forces struck a ship carrying military cargo in the Black Sea.
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 31st of July, covering the latest developments.
At least 18 coal miners have been killed and 14 others remain trapped after a powerful methane gas explosion caused part of a mining complex to collapse in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province, officials said on Thursday.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment