Oil prices slid on Monday as investors weighed the potential impact of ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to an increase in Russian oil entering global markets.
Both benchmarks had settled higher on Friday, marking a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ alliance raised expectations of tighter supply. However, optimism was tempered by the ongoing ceasefire talks that have investors bracing for a potential surge in Russian exports if negotiations bear fruit.
A U.S. delegation is set to meet with Russian officials on Monday in an effort to advance discussions toward a Black Sea ceasefire and a broader cessation of hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine war, following talks with Ukrainian diplomats on Sunday. Analysts noted that expectations of progress in peace negotiations, along with the possibility of easing U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, weighed on prices.
“Expectations of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil pressured prices lower,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. He added that investors remain cautious, holding back on large positions as they assess future OPEC+ production trends beyond April.
OPEC+—the group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia—recently issued a new schedule requiring seven member nations to implement further output cuts to offset excess production. This move is expected to more than offset planned monthly production hikes from the group starting next month. Singapore-based IG strategist Yeap Jun Rong observed, “Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks raise the prospects of increased Russian exports on an eventual resolution, while the OPEC+ production hike as early as April points to further supply additions, which may be difficult to be fully absorbed by demand factors.”
Since 2022, OPEC+ has been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day—roughly 5.7% of global supply—to support market stability. On March 3, the group confirmed that eight of its members would proceed with a monthly increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, citing stronger market fundamentals.
Market participants are also monitoring the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iran announced last week. While these sanctions have heightened supply risks for Iranian oil, leading to an expected near-term decline in shipments to China and increased shipping costs, some traders anticipate that buyers will find workarounds to maintain at least partial volume flows.
As geopolitical developments continue to influence supply and demand dynamics, investors remain vigilant, balancing the potential for increased Russian oil exports against the backdrop of broader market uncertainties.
Russia said it remains unclear whether Ukraine will observe a temporary ceasefire declared for Victory Day, as Kyiv calls for a longer, unconditional truce.
Negotiations in Cairo to secure a ceasefire in Gaza were close to a "significant breakthrough," two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday.
Israel launched a late-night air raid targeting a southern Beirut neighborhood, claiming it struck a building housing "precision-guided" missiles for Hezbollah.
U.S. President Donald Trump wants a lasting ceasefire to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Monday that Ukraine is ready to support a full, lasting, and durable ceasefire.
Amazon says it never planned to display Trump-era tariffs on product pages, disputing a report that drew a sharp response from the White House.
Nearly 39,000 people have been deported to Mexico since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, and 33,000 of them are Mexican nationals, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday.
Prince William and Princess Kate marked their 14th wedding anniversary Tuesday with a rare joint appearance on Mull and Iona, their first major public trip since the princess’s cancer treatment.
Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur says the U.S. will keep its 80,000 troops in Europe, calling bases like Ramstein and Naples crucial to NATO’s eastern shield and American power projection despite Washington’s growing Indo-Pacific focus.
Mark Carney walked into the Prime Minister’s Office on Wellington Street Tuesday morning, his first official act after steering the Liberals to a decisive election triumph and reclaiming the reins of Canada’s government.
Russia launched a major missile and drone assault on Kyiv overnight on April 24, killing at least twelve people and injuring 90, including children and a pregnant woman, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
In an expansive interview marking his first 100 days back in office, President Donald Trump sketched out an agenda that touches everything from punitive tariffs and China policy to cease-fire hopes in Ukraine and an overhaul of domestic programmes. Below are the highlights.
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A deadly explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port has left at least 40 dead, with more than 1,200 people injured, state media reported on Sunday, halting operations at one of the country’s most vital trade hubs.
Three people were killed in a shooting in central Uppsala on Tuesday, police confirmed, as the city began celebrations for Walpurgis Night.
Amazon says it never planned to display Trump-era tariffs on product pages, disputing a report that drew a sharp response from the White House.
Nearly 39,000 people have been deported to Mexico since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, and 33,000 of them are Mexican nationals, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday.
Prince William and Princess Kate marked their 14th wedding anniversary Tuesday with a rare joint appearance on Mull and Iona, their first major public trip since the princess’s cancer treatment.
Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur says the U.S. will keep its 80,000 troops in Europe, calling bases like Ramstein and Naples crucial to NATO’s eastern shield and American power projection despite Washington’s growing Indo-Pacific focus.
Amazon says it never planned to display Trump-era tariffs on product pages, disputing a report that drew a sharp response from the White House.
Nearly 39,000 people have been deported to Mexico since U.S. President Donald Trump took office, and 33,000 of them are Mexican nationals, President Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday.
Prince William and Princess Kate marked their 14th wedding anniversary Tuesday with a rare joint appearance on Mull and Iona, their first major public trip since the princess’s cancer treatment.
Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur says the U.S. will keep its 80,000 troops in Europe, calling bases like Ramstein and Naples crucial to NATO’s eastern shield and American power projection despite Washington’s growing Indo-Pacific focus.
Mark Carney walked into the Prime Minister’s Office on Wellington Street Tuesday morning, his first official act after steering the Liberals to a decisive election triumph and reclaiming the reins of Canada’s government.
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