Swiss voters set to reject population cap, avoiding EU clash

Switzerland on Sunday rejected a referendum proposal to cap its population at 10 million, a projection showed, as voters prioritised economic stability and the country's ties with the European Union over immigration concerns.

A preliminary projection published by national broadcaster SRF indicated about 45% of voters were in favour of the proposal and 55% against.

The referendum, which was likened to Britain's 2016 Brexit vote, had put businesses on edge due to concerns it could lead to the end of free movement of labour between Switzerland and the EU, its main trading partner.

The proposal by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party sets a population cap of 10 million by 2050. It also states that if the limit is exceeded for two consecutive years, Switzerland should withdraw from its free movement agreement with the EU.

Urs Bieri from polling firm GFS Bern said the vote failed because although many people were worried about the rising population, they were not convinced by the plan and worried about the possible side-effects.

"From the very beginning it has been presented as the chaos initiative. Voters were worried about negative consequences for Switzerland's relationship with the EU and for the labour market," he said.

Close outcome had been expected

The Swiss population already stands at 9.1 million and has grown far more quickly than in the surrounding EU. Foreigners make up nearly 28% of the Swiss population, which official projections forecast will reach 10 million by the early 2040s.

Polls had forecast a close outcome, and the result tallied with a final survey by pollsters GFS Bern, which had predicted the proposal would be narrowly rejected.

Still, the substantial backing for the measure sits alongside growing support for policies aimed at curbing immigration across Europe. Campaign posters proclaimed only 10% of incomers were skilled workers and that asylum seekers were more likely to be rapists.

Opponents dubbed the plan a recipe for chaos because of the upheaval it would cause for Swiss companies, workers and Bern's ties with the EU.

They also questioned whether it was wise to clash with Brussels after a bruising 2025, when President Donald Trump slapped the highest U.S. tariffs in Europe on Swiss goods.

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Patrick Leisibach, a migration expert at think tank Avenir Suisse, said economic arguments had played a role, with people wary of how a "yes" vote would affect their daily lives.

"They wonder 'who is going to serve me at the restaurant?' and 'who is going to care for me when I get old?' It's more about personal welfare which made people reject this initiative," Leisibach said.

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