Conditions of a climate pattern El Niño have officially developed and are expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. The forecast raises concerns of extreme weather, agricultural issues and record global temperatures.
The U.S. forecaster said warming ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have crossed the threshold used to define an El Niño event, while atmospheric conditions are also beginning to reflect the shift.
Scientists say the climate pattern, which naturally occurs every few years, can alter weather systems worldwide by changing rainfall patterns and increasing global temperatures.
Forecast models suggest the current event could become exceptionally strong. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 63% chance that El Niño will reach "very strong" status between November and January, potentially placing it among the most powerful events recorded since modern observations began in 1950.
The strongest El Niño episodes on record occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
Some U.S. and European forecasting models indicate Pacific Ocean temperatures could rise more than 3°C above average later this year.
NOAA cautioned that even very strong El Niño events do not produce identical impacts everywhere, but said stronger events significantly increase the likelihood of major weather disruptions across multiple regions.
Agricultural markets are closely monitoring the development, particularly in Asia where El Niño is often linked to reduced rainfall.
"El Niño is likely to have a negative impact on crop yields in Southeast Asia and India, where El Niño is typically associated with below-normal rainfall," said Kyle Tapley of Vaisala Xweather's WeatherDesk.
The phenomenon could pose a challenge for India, where the annual monsoon provides nearly 70% of the country's rainfall and remains critical for farming. Lower rainfall could reduce harvests of rice, cotton, soybeans and pulses, while also affecting winter crop production.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, Indonesian rice farmers are reportedly adjusting planting schedules in anticipation of a prolonged dry spell, while Malaysian officials have warned that crop yields could decline by between 8% and 10% if dry conditions persist.
El Niño typically brings drought conditions to some regions while increasing rainfall and flooding risks in others. It also influences tropical cyclone activity, often reducing the number of storms in the Atlantic basin.
Tapley said the current El Niño is expected to contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, although the risk of powerful individual storms remains.
Meteorologists also warn that the warming event is developing against a backdrop of long-term human-caused climate change, increasing the likelihood of temperature records being broken.
Many climate researchers believe the combination of El Niño and global warming could make 2027 one of the hottest years ever recorded, with impacts on weather patterns, food supplies and economies likely to extend well beyond the lifespan of the event itself.
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