2024 has been confirmed as the first year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This marks a significant milestone in global climate trends, with the warming driven largely by human activities.
C3S reported that the average global temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C higher than the 1850-1990 reference period, surpassing the previous record set in 2023 by a notable margin. This result continues a two-year warming trend, which experts are still analyzing to better understand its causes. Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S, noted that every month in 2024 was either the warmest or the second-warmest on record for that month.
In addition to the C3S data, the UK’s Met Office also confirmed that global temperatures likely exceeded the 1.5°C threshold. However, their estimate for the average global temperature in 2024 was slightly lower, at 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels.
The 1.5°C target was set under the 2015 Paris Agreement, with countries pledging to take action to avoid surpassing this level to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. While a single year above this threshold does not directly violate the Paris Agreement’s target, the rising temperatures indicate that the 1.5°C threshold could be exceeded within the next decade. Buontempo stated that the Paris target will likely be surpassed in the next ten years unless urgent measures are taken to reduce emissions.
While the situation remains critical, Buontempo emphasized that it is still possible to bring global temperatures back below 1.5°C this century if nations significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. “It’s not a done deal. We have the power to change the trajectory from now on,” he said.
The impact of this warming is evident across the globe. In 2024, extreme weather events such as wildfires, floods, and heatwaves affected numerous countries. Wildfires in California, Bolivia, and Venezuela caused significant damage, while countries like Nepal, Sudan, and Spain experienced severe flooding. Heatwaves in Mexico and Saudi Arabia led to thousands of deaths. The global water vapor content in the atmosphere reached its highest level on record, contributing to intense rainfall and storms.
C3S also reported that nearly 44% of the planet experienced "strong" to "extreme" heat stress on July 10, 2024. This highlights the increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves around the world.
The primary driver of the rising temperatures is the increased concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), which reached a record level of 422 parts per million in 2024. This increase in CO2 levels has been linked to the continued burning of fossil fuels.
Despite the mounting evidence of climate change, political action has varied across countries. For instance, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has previously called climate change a hoax, contrary to the scientific consensus. Experts, such as Professor Chukwumerije Okereke from the University of Bristol, have called for stronger political will to address the climate crisis. Okereke emphasized that the 1.5°C threshold should serve as a wake-up call for political leaders to take more substantial action.
The 1.5°C milestone highlights the urgent need for global action to curb emissions and limit further temperature increases. The coming decade will be critical in determining the trajectory of global climate conditions.
Rising global temperatures are set to make 2024 the warmest year on record, exceeding the critical 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. With no cooling La Niña event, experts warn that this acceleration in warming underscores the urgent need for global action on emissions.
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