As the year comes to a close, questions remain about the sustainability of European Union support for Ukraine. Political analyst Orkhan Nabiyev, speaking to AnewZ from Baku, expressed confidence that EU backing will hold firm into 2026.
Nabiyev described the €90 billion loan to Ukraine as "the biggest victory of the European Union," underlining the scale and strategic significance of the move.
He added that, in his opinion, the EU’s freezing of Russian assets further strengthens Ukraine’s position.
The European Union and its member states have kept an estimated €210 billion of Russian state assets immobilised since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, mostly held at the Belgium‑based clearing house Euroclear.
Member states also authorised the European Commission to pursue a “reparations loan” plan that could ultimately use the immobilised assets as security for future repayments if Russia refuses to pay war reparations, although legal and political disagreements, particularly from Belgium, have delayed implementation.
The assets remain frozen under EU sanctions as leverage against Moscow’s war effort and as a bargaining chip in future negotiations, according to reports from the EU Leaders' summit in Brussels.
Nabiyev theorised that Russian President Vladimir Putin had anticipated U.S. President Donald Trump to obtain Russia's frozen assets and "share them".
In his opinion the European Union's moves intercepted this process.
The expert noted that "Ukraine already has the support that they need from European Union,” for the upcoming year. This financial and political backing ensures Ukraine can sustain its defence and civil operations in the coming months, Nabiyev added.
However, looking ahead, Nabiyev predicts that EU support will still likely increase in 2026.
Orkhan Nabiyev believes that in January 2026 the Trump administration will realise that a peace deal is unlikely and will work together with Europe to extend the sanctions.
He also highlighted the EU’s continued pressure on Russian trade and energy exports, prognosing potential targeted restrictions aimed at limiting Moscow’s oil revenues.
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