Trump and von der Leyen set for pivotal trade talks in Scotland

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Scotland on Saturday ahead of a meeting with US President Donald Trump scheduled for Sunday evening. Officials from both sides have indicated that a trade agreement is within reach.

During his visit to Scotland for a few days of golfing and bilateral discussions, Trump told reporters on Friday evening that he looked forward to meeting von der Leyen, describing her as a “highly respected leader.” He assessed the chances of reaching a framework trade deal between the US and the 27-member European Union as “50-50.” Trump added that Brussels was “very keen” to strike a deal.

If successful, Trump said the agreement would be the largest trade deal secured by his administration to date, surpassing the $550 billion accord recently reached with Japan.

Ahead of the summit, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick departed Washington for Scotland to engage in high-level talks with EU officials. A source from the administration, speaking on condition of anonymity, expressed cautious optimism, saying, “We’re hopeful a deal will be reached, but nothing is final until it’s done.”

On Thursday, the European Commission stated that a negotiated trade solution with the US was “within sight,” even as EU members approved counter-tariffs on $109 billion (€93 billion) worth of American goods should talks fail.

Diplomatic sources suggest the agreement could include a general 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, alongside a 50% tariff on European steel and aluminium. This rate would be half of the 30% tariffs Trump threatened to impose from 1 August.

To secure a deal, Trump has insisted the EU “buy down” the 30% tariff, although he provided no specifics. He told reporters there was “little wiggle room” on the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, adding, “If I do it for one, I have to do it for all.”

It remains unclear whether Washington will exempt EU imports from other sectoral tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and other goods that have already been announced or are pending.

Combined, goods, services, and investment make the EU and the US each other’s largest trading partners by a significant margin. The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels warned in March that any disruption could jeopardise $9.5 trillion worth of business within the world’s most vital commercial relationship.

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