Armenians will vote on Sunday in a parliamentary election that will determine whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan secures a new mandate to pursue peace with Azerbaijan or cedes ground to pro-Russian rivals.

The vote is being watched closely by Moscow and Western capitals. Polls show Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party leading with roughly 30% support, while his main challenger, Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, trails at between 6% and 11%.

Karapetyan, who is under house arrest on charges of usurping power, which he denies, advocates closer ties with Moscow. Another contender, former President Robert Kocharyan, also favours maintaining friendly relations with Russia.

A crossroads election

“These are the first geo-politicised elections in Armenia’s independent history,” said Tigran Grigoryan, director of the Regional Centre for Democracy and Security think-tank in Yerevan. 

“All the main domestic actors have their own geopolitical and foreign policy preferences, and all the external actors have their preferences in this electoral race.”

Pashinyan, who came to power in the 2018 Velvet Revolution, has sought to diversify Armenia’s foreign policy away from sole reliance on Russia. He envisions the landlocked nation of three million people as a “crossroads of peace”, reopening long-closed borders with Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

U.S. President Donald Trump helped broker a meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and is pushing for a transit corridor across southern Armenia as part of a peace deal. Europe, too, is anxious for a foothold in a region sandwiched between Russia and Iran.

“For the EU, Armenia is the only remaining partner in the South Caucasus,” Grigoryan told Reuters. “Given what’s happening in Georgia, when the main alternative to Pashinyan are these pro-Russian forces, they don’t see any choice left.”

Sunday’s vote is the first since Azerbaijan restored full control over Garabagh in 2023. Although Mr Pashinyan touts progress towards a peace deal and the reopening of the frontier with Türkiye, no peace agreement with Baku has yet been signed.

Pashinyan’s loyal base despite oppostion

The Prime Minister retains a loyal base. In his northern hometown of Ijevan, supporters point to newly paved roads, economic growth and a more recognisable international standing. 

“We’ve certainly seen changes – freedom of speech and free elections, as strange as it may sound,” said Anna Egoyan, a resident who backs the ruling party. “Before that, we’d always periodically had rigged elections. The economy is growing.”

Since 2018, GDP per capita has doubled, hundreds of kindergartens have opened and thousands of kilometres of road have been paved.

What is at stake

Should Pashinyan fail to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, a pledge to Azerbaijan to call a referendum to change Armenia's constitution would be difficult for him to fulfill, and peace efforts could stall.

The pivot away from Russia is also a delicate gamble. Armenia sends around a third of its exports to Russia and relies on Moscow for energy. In recent weeks, Russia has restricted Armenian exports and threatened to cut off cheap oil and gas. 

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The government in Yerevan has downplayed the risks. Yet surveys show a third of Armenians now view Russia as a threat.

Polls open at 08:00 local time (04:00 GMT) on 7 June. Preliminary results are expected early on Monday.

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