Japan’s first import of crude oil from Azerbaijan has highlighted the country’s energy vulnerability and renewed efforts to diversify supply chains beyond the Middle East, according to Professor Sejiro Takeshita of the University of Shizuoka.

Speaking to Anewz, Professor Takeshita said the shipment reflected a long-standing strategic necessity rather than a sudden policy shift.

“Japan relies on external sources for 99.6 per cent of its oil, and around 93 per cent of that comes from the Middle East,” he said. “That level of dependence is excessive, and diversification has been discussed since the 1990s, but progress has been repeatedly delayed.”

Post‑Fukushima constraints on energy options

Japan’s dependence deepened after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, which led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants that had previously generated around 30 per cent of the country’s electricity.

“Nuclear power dropped to zero after the disaster,” Professor Takeshita said. “It has only clawed its way back to roughly eight per cent, and that is nowhere near enough.”

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While renewable energy capacity has expanded, he stressed that it cannot yet meet industrial demand.

“High-precision industries such as semiconductor manufacturing need stable, uninterrupted energy,” he said. “From an industrial perspective, Japan still has to rely on either nuclear or oil. Wind and solar can work for households, but not for large-scale manufacturing.”

Azerbaijani crude and the security importance

The arrival on 12 May of a tanker carrying around 45,000 kilolitres of Azerbaijani crude - the first ever delivered to Japan - comes amid growing concerns over instability in the Middle East and the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

The shipment, equivalent to about 283,000 barrels, will be refined at ENEOS’s Negishi refinery near Tokyo.

Although the volume represents only a fraction of Japan’s daily consumption of roughly three million barrels, Professor Takeshita said the delivery carries significant strategic importance.

“Japan does maintain around 239 days of reserves, but that does not change the fact that we are probably one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to Middle Eastern disruptions,” he said. “Diversifying supply chains is not optional; it is a matter of national security.”

Diversification beyond oil and towards new partnerships

Professor Takeshita also told Anewz that Japan’s reassessment extends beyond energy to rare metals and critical materials, sectors in which supply chains are often dominated by China.

“We realised during Covid-19 how concentrated and fragile the global supply chain had become,” he said.

He highlighted growing Japanese interest in the so-called Middle Corridor through the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

“Creating alternative distribution pathways is essential,” he said. “It may be late, but it is better late than never.”

Pointing to Azerbaijan, he argued that closer cooperation could bring mutual benefits.

“Azerbaijan can benefit from Japanese technology and investment, while Japan can better diversify its supply chains,” Professor Takeshita said, adding that collaboration among medium-sized states was likely to accelerate as global tensions persist.

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Azerbaijan Japan Crude oil Global trade Middle East conflict