View: How does the global power shift affect the South Caucasus

The global centre of political gravity is increasingly moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific, a development with significant implications for the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Özkaleli notes that Europe’s relative importance may be declining, but this does not necessarily diminish Eurasia’s geopolitical relevance.

“The fundamental rule of world politics remains balance of power,” he observes, emphasising that the United States alone cannot counter China’s rising influence, with its population of 1.5 billion and growing economic clout.

According to Özkaleli, the new U.S. National Security Strategy recognises China as a primary rival but no longer treats Russia as an outright adversary, creating space for potential cooperation between Washington and Moscow.

In this evolving context, Azerbaijan emerges as a pivotal actor. Özkaleli describes it as “the jewel of the crown” in Eurasia, situated at the intersection of global tectonic shifts in power.

Its diplomatic engagement with major powers, including cordial relations with China, positions the country as a strategic pivot in a region increasingly shaped by the interplay of rising and established powers.

Özkaleli characterises this period as a liminal phase or interregnum in world politics - the old order has ended, but the new one is still emerging, creating both opportunities and uncertainties for states in Eurasia and beyond.

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News Politics global power shift South Caucasus