The Caspian Sea has retreated by up to 35 kilometres along Kazakhstan's coastline since 2006, raising fresh concerns about the future of the world's largest inland body of water and the communities, industries and ecosystems that depend on it.

The scale of the change is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, water levels along the country's Caspian coast have fallen steadily over the past two decades, pushing the shoreline back by 30 to 35 kilometres in some areas. In the north-eastern part of the sea, the average water level has now dropped to minus 29 metres relative to the Baltic reference level.

Scientists warn that the trend is likely to continue. Forecasts suggest the Caspian could lose a further three to five metres by 2050, affecting millions of people across the five countries bordering the sea while placing additional pressure on one of Eurasia's most distinctive ecosystems. In Kazakhstan alone, water levels fell by 26 centimetres in 2024, reaching minus 29.12 metres under the Baltic elevation system, according to the ministry.

Coastline changes create governance challenges

Against this backdrop, the issue has moved beyond environmental monitoring and into the realm of governance and economic planning. As the coastline shifts, questions are emerging over how state agencies define the sea's boundaries and manage territories that were once underwater.

Those concerns prompted MP Dyusenbai Turganov to call for the creation of a unified digital map of the Caspian coastline. In a parliamentary inquiry addressed to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, he argued that the sea's legal boundaries are currently recorded in several databases maintained by different government bodies. Because those systems are updated independently, the official coastline is gradually diverging from the sea's actual contours.

The discrepancy is becoming increasingly significant for land administration, subsoil use and investment projects in coastal areas. To address the problem, Turganov proposed creating a single electronic model of the coastline based on satellite imagery, hydrological observations and geodetic data. He also called for the system to be integrated into Kazakhstan's state land cadastre and subsoil-use framework

Expert's view 

Vadim Ni, Founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement and Director of the Social Ecological Fund in Toronto, said that the call for digital monitoring of the coastline showed that the decline of the Caspian Sea was becoming an "economic issue."

"The message [is] that the decline of the Caspian Sea is no longer [just] an environmental issue. It's becoming an economic and governance issue," he told AnewZ's Nadia Gyane. 

He added that while the issue affected all of the countries bordering the Capsian Sea, the problem was most visible in the northeastern area, where Kazkahstan is located.

"This part of the sea is shallow so it's visible in Atyrau region, where you can see that some part of the sea has emptied and you can see new islands in the delta of the Ural River."

Seal deaths raise environmental concerns

The retreating sea is also drawing attention to the condition of the Caspian's fragile ecosystem. Since April, dead Caspian seals have been regularly found along the coast of the Mangystau Region. The discoveries follow a major mortality event in autumn 2024, when around 2,000 dead seals were found on the shoreline.

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While the causes of these incidents remain under investigation, recurring reports of seal deaths have intensified concerns among environmental experts and officials. Turganov has proposed introducing a unified inter-agency protocol for responding to mass deaths of seals, fish and birds, arguing that environmental emergencies require faster coordination between state bodies.

Calls for regional cooperation

Growing concern over the Caspian's future has already prompted calls for broader regional action. Last autumn, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged the development of an international programme to protect the sea, stressing that the challenge cannot be addressed by any one country alone.

Kazakhstan has also sought to strengthen its scientific response. In 2025, the country established the Caspian Sea Research Institute, which is responsible for environmental monitoring, cooperation with other littoral states and the restoration of the sea's natural resources.

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