'Strategic patience was lost' – Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation enters new phase

Pakistan’s declaration of an “open war” with Afghanistan must be understood in the context of months of escalating violence, regional analysts have said, describing the latest developments as a significant shift in the nature of the conflict.

Speaking to AnewZ, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chairman of the Department of Politics at the University of Sargodha in Punjab, said the rhetoric follows a series of deadly attacks inside Pakistan that authorities have linked to cross-border militancy.

“We cannot directly go to the statement that this is an open war,” Ahmed said. “You have to go back to the background.”

He pointed to a suicide attack on a district court in Islamabad in November 2025 that killed around a dozen people, followed by a 6 February suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque in the capital that left about 31 worshippers dead and many more wounded.

• Islamabad mosque attack kills at least 31 in deadliest bombing for a decade

Analysts said subsequent militant attacks near the Afghan border - including a blast that killed two soldiers later in February - contributed to the erosion of Pakistan’s so-called strategic patience and its decision to launch airstrikes inside Afghanistan.

According to Pakistani intelligence assessments cited by Ahmed, at least one of the suicide bombers had travelled from Afghanistan to carry out an attack in Pakistan.

“This is the overall background,” he said, arguing that what Islamabad has described as its “strategic patience” eroded after repeated attacks, ultimately leading to airstrikes inside Afghan territory.

Ahmed said the phrase “open war” signals a qualitative shift in military engagement.

“Previously, Pakistan was attacking militant hideouts of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan inside Afghanistan,” he explained.

“But this time, the difference is that Pakistan is attacking military or brigade headquarters of the Afghan Taliban.”

He added that a key objective of the strikes is the destruction of advanced weaponry left behind by U.S. forces, including small arms equipped with night-vision capabilities that Pakistani officials say have been used in attacks against its forces. Ahmed also linked recent violence in Balochistan to what he described as the circulation of such weapons among militant groups.

“In short, open war means that now Pakistan is targeting military headquarters or assets of the Taliban,” he said.

• Pakistan declares ‘open war’ with Afghanistan, as airstrikes in Kabul escalate tensions
• Taliban official tells UN Pakistan airstrikes on Afghanistan targeted civilians

The escalation has raised concerns about broader regional instability.

Defence of sovereignty

Osama Rizvi, founder of Rizvi Insights in Lahore, told AnewZ that while Pakistan has historically positioned itself as committed to coexistence and peace, it views the recent cross-border attacks as a direct challenge to its sovereignty.

“Pakistan has always been for coexistence and peace, but at the same time, we have to defend our sovereignty,” Rizvi said.

He described the latest strikes as “precise” and focused on military hideouts rather than civilians, characterising the operation as a necessary response to mounting security threats.

“I think this will end when it will end. We have just launched a new operation, and we’ll see it through to the end,” Rizvi added.

Beyond the immediate confrontation, Rizvi warned that the developments reflect a broader pattern of volatility.

• What’s behind the Pakistan–Afghanistan clashes?
• Iran urges Afghanistan and Pakistan to talk, offering Tehran's assistance

“This is all about the region and I think it speaks a lot about how 2026 started and how volatile and unstable it will be for the rest of the year,” he said.

Tags

News Politics Central Asia border clashes Pakistan Afghanistan Taliban View