Central Asia’s population boom puts pressure on trade routes and economic planning

Central Asia’s population could reach 96 million by 2040, according to the head of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), highlighting both the region’s economic potential and the growing strain on infrastructure, trade routes and long-term development models.

The projection was outlined by EDB chairman, Nikolai Podguzov, in an interview with Russian state news agency TASS. 

"By 2040, we estimate that Central Asia's population could reach 96 million. This should be a driver for the economy, but at the same time, such a large population places a huge strain on infrastructure. Sustainable development requires a leap forward in energy efficiency, modern mobility, and water resource management," Podguzov said.

The projection underscores the scale of demographic change underway across the five Central Asian states. Rapid population growth is expected to support economic expansion by boosting labour supply and domestic demand. At the same time, the pace of that growth is exposing structural constraints that risk slowing development if they are not addressed in parallel.

Geography remains one of the region’s biggest challenges. Central Asia’s distance from major ocean ports continues to push up trade costs, raising the price of both exports and imports by an estimated 20–40 per cent. This acts as a built-in “distance tax”, reducing competitiveness and making it harder to integrate into global markets. For landlocked economies, improving transport efficiency is not simply a technical issue but a key factor in long-term growth.

Developing transport routes

Trade routes are also evolving. While east-to-west corridors have traditionally dominated regional logistics, attention is increasingly turning to north-to-south links and the proposed Trans-Afghan route. These routes are seen as crucial for improving access to South Asian and Gulf markets, diversifying trade and reducing dependence on a small number of transit corridors. Better connectivity across Eurasia is widely viewed as essential to lowering costs and strengthening economic resilience.

The economic implications are significant. The Eurasian Development Bank expects the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries to approach $600 billion by 2026, driven by growth in consumption, investment and regional co-operation. However, sustaining this progress will depend on how governments manage rising demographic pressure, transport capacity and infrastructure needs.

Data from UNICEF underline both the opportunity and the urgency of these changes. Central Asia’s population surpassed 84 million in 2025 and could reach 112 million by 2050, almost double its size in 2000. At a time when much of Eastern Europe is facing population decline, Central Asia stands out within Eurasia for its continued growth.

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More than half of the region’s population is currently under the age of 30, creating a temporary demographic dividend that could support economic growth and fiscal stability. However, this advantage will not last indefinitely. By mid-century, the share of young people is expected to fall below 40 per cent in most countries as populations age, reshaping labour markets and public finances.

Demographic trends differ across the region. Kazakhstan has already entered the category of an ageing society and is projected to move closer to the age profile of developed European economies by 2050. Uzbekistan is expected to become the region’s largest demographic centre, with its population rising from around 37 million in 2025 to more than 50 million by mid-century.

This growth will place added pressure on education, healthcare and employment. Tajikistan, meanwhile, is forecast to remain one of the youngest countries in Eurasia, with population growth exceeding 45 per cent. While this will sustain a young workforce, it will also increase demand for jobs and public services.

Ultimately, whether Central Asia’s population growth leads to lasting prosperity will depend on policy decisions made today. According to UNICEF, up to two thirds of future productivity growth in the region will rely on sustained investment in education, healthcare, social protection and child welfare. Without consistent investment, the region’s demographic advantages could fade quickly.

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News Kazakhstan Trade Eurasia Economy Uzbekistan PopulationGrowth