The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its outlook for the economies of Central Asia and the Caucasus by raising its growth forecast for 2026

The new figures released by the Bank predict a 5.8% growth, up from the previously estimated 5.5%.

According to the updated assessment, the region’s combined GDP is expected to expand by 5% in 2026, supported by increased public investment, higher volumes of remittances and resilient domestic demand.

The ADB has also upgraded its projection for China, expecting the country’s economy to grow by 4.8% this year.

Despite this upward adjustment, analysts warn that several factors may weigh on China’s performance.

These include the potential resurgence of trade tensions, elevated geopolitical risks, financial market volatility and the possibility of a sharper downturn in the country’s property sector.

Given China’s significant trade and investment ties across the region, these risks could have broader spillover effects.

One of the key drivers behind the improved forecast for Central Asia is the launch of the Future Growth Expansion Project in Kazakhstan’s oil sector.

The large-scale initiative is viewed as a catalyst for long-term development, expected to strengthen the country’s production capacity, expand its export potential and attract further investment into the region.

The stronger outlook for Central Asia stands in contrast to a general slowdown in the wider Asia-Pacific region.

There, the ADB attributes the downward revisions to several destabilising factors, including a possible tightening of trade barriers by the United States, rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing disruptions in global supply chains and volatility in energy markets.

The deepening slump in China’s property market adds to these uncertainties, posing a significant challenge to regional economic stability.

Despite these global headwinds, Kazakhstan continues to post robust domestic performance.

Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin announced earlier that the country achieved its fastest GDP growth rate in twelve years during the first half of 2025.

This result underscores Kazakhstan’s capacity to adapt to external pressures and capitalise on favourable economic conditions to strengthen its position. 

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