Aral Sea: Northern basin proliferates faster than expected

The volume of water in the Northern Aral has reached 24.1 billion cubic metres, surpassing the 2025 target by a wide margin according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, which announced that the sea is making a remarkable comeback, and doing so faster than anticipated.

Originally officials had aimed for 20.6 billion cubic metres by this year, with projections of reaching 24 billion only by 2029.

Since 2023, around 5 billion cubic metres of water has been diverted into the sea, primarily from the Syr Darya River, which remains the region’s main source of inflow.

According to Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, a feasibility study is currently under way to explore long-term stabilisation of the basin. 

One of the proposals includes raising the Kokaral Dam by two metres, alongside the construction of a new hydraulic facility to manage water levels in the adjacent Akshatau and Kamystybas lake systems.

These plans are being discussed with local communities to ensure any interventions align with regional needs and environmental sustainability.

Officials say the project aims to increase both the volume and quality of water in the Northern Aral, support the restoration of the Syr Darya delta, reduce the spread of salt and toxic sediments from the exposed seabed, boost the local fishing economy in the Kyzylorda region, and improve living standards for nearby residents.

The Northern Aral also referred to as the Small Aral Sea began forming in 1987, as the original Aral Sea continued to recede due to excessive upstream irrigation during the Soviet era.

At its worst, the Aral lost more than 90% of its original volume, leaving behind a barren salt plain, dust storms carrying pollutants, and devastated local communities.

The turning point came in 2005, when Kazakhstan completed the Kokaral Dam, effectively separating the northern basin from the southern half, which had become almost entirely desiccated. The dam enabled the retention of seasonal inflows from the Syr Darya, triggering a gradual but tangible recovery.

In 2012, the Northern Aral and the Syr Darya delta were recognised as internationally significant wetlands under the Ramsar Convention, adding both visibility and urgency to conservation efforts. Since then, the area has become a key case study in landscape restoration and water governance.

While full rehabilitation of the Aral Sea as a whole remains unlikely say experts, the progress in the north offers rare proof that even large-scale environmental degradation can, at least in part, be reversed. With consistent scientific planning, community engagement, and government backing, Kazakhstan say it's turned what many viewed as a lost cause into a model of resilience and regeneration.

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