Australia warns El Niño could become strongest in decades

Australia's weather bureau warned on Tuesday that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of 2026, becoming one of the strongest events recorded in seven decades.

Forecasters expect the weather phenomenon to bring excessive rainfall to the Americas and hot, dry conditions across Asia, where crop planting is already being disrupted, raising concerns about food supplies in the world's most populous region.

Sea surface temperatures in the region have exceeded El Niño thresholds, while atmospheric indicators are all aligned with the phenomenon, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.

"Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Niño event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific," it said.

"Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950."

Climate change may amplify impacts

Scientists have said climate change is likely to intensify the effects of this year's El Niño.

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The bureau said El Niño, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, is associated with reduced rainfall during winter and spring, particularly along Australia's east coast, as well as higher daytime temperatures across southern parts of the country.

Threat to agriculture

The weather phenomenon is particularly damaging to Australia because it affects agricultural production in a country that ranks among the world's largest exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.

The most recent El Niño, which occurred between 2023 and 2024, contributed to Australia's driest three-month period on record.

One of the strongest El Niño events on record, which occurred in 2015 and 2016, brought widespread drought and reduced grain and oilseed production.

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Australia weather climate change Extreme weather agriculture food security