An impending "super" El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank's (AfDB) top climate expert said.
Forecasters are warning that the El Niño weather pattern - which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa - could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.
As well as threatening food and water security, El Niño could also undermine government finances and banking sectors. Disasters could damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay related loans.
"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1 per cent to 2 per cent on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's Director for Climate Change and Green Growth said.
Nyong's estimate of the likely $10 to $20 billion hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Niño. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.
Drought conditions, which much of the Sahel region has been suffering from in recent years, may persist, while Mozambique's experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show it can take years to recover from major storms.
The AfDB has estimated Africa's farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fishing industries could be hit hard too due to rising sea temperatures and storms.
"When these shocks happen, countries take two steps back," Nyong said. "We don't want our countries to slide into poverty."
The AfDB's response to El Niño is set to ramp up with a bank-wide "seminar" in September as top staff assess the potential impact on both its planned and existing investments.
Nyong said it stood ready to restructure projects to help countries manage El Niño's impacts and would work with them to tap additional multilateral support such as the Green Climate Fund, the world's largest dedicated climate fund.
An October report from the United Nations estimated that by 2035 developing countries will collectively need around $365 billion in a year to tackle climate change, yet international public adaptation finance was just $26 billion in 2023.
Mass migration
Humanitarian pressures would add to the problems, Nyong said, and the bank had identified Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and even Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts.
The resulting resource shortages and competition for grazing land and water could exacerbate existing fragility in vulnerable regions, Nyong said, with agricultural losses seen at around $327 million and fisheries productivity set to fall 1 per cent to 4 per cent.
El Nino is expected in 2026 as sea surface temperatures climb to historic highs.
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