The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño, warning the climate pattern is likely to drive higher global temperatures and intensify extreme weather in the months ahead.
The WMO said there is now an 80% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, with the probability rising above 90% that conditions will persist until at least November.
WMO scientist Álvaro Silva said there is now "remarkable agreement" among forecast models that a strong El Niño is forming in the equatorial Pacific.
The agency had previously projected moderate or potentially strong conditions earlier this summer, but said warming ocean temperatures and atmospheric indicators have significantly increased confidence in the forecast.
Subsurface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific are running more than 6C above average, creating what forecasters described as a major reservoir of heat.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned the world should treat El Niño as an urgent climate warning.
"El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," Guterres said, urging governments to strengthen early warning systems and accelerate climate action.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could worsen droughts, heavy rainfall and heatwaves across both land and oceans.
Seasonal forecasts suggest drier-than-normal conditions could affect Central America, the Caribbean, parts of South America and South Asia, while regions including southern South America and the Horn of Africa may experience increased rainfall.
The agency said the effects could extend into 2027, with global temperatures often peaking during El Niño years.
The warning comes after Europe experienced its most intense recorded late-June heatwave, which scientists said was made significantly more severe by human-driven climate change.
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