The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for the rapid emergence of a strong El Niño, warning the climate pattern is likely to drive higher global temperatures and intensify extreme weather in the months ahead.
The WMO said there is now an 80% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, with the probability rising above 90% that conditions will persist until at least November.
WMO scientist Álvaro Silva said there is now "remarkable agreement" among forecast models that a strong El Niño is forming in the equatorial Pacific.
The agency had previously projected moderate or potentially strong conditions earlier this summer, but said warming ocean temperatures and atmospheric indicators have significantly increased confidence in the forecast.
Subsurface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific are running more than 6C above average, creating what forecasters described as a major reservoir of heat.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned the world should treat El Niño as an urgent climate warning.
"El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," Guterres said, urging governments to strengthen early warning systems and accelerate climate action.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could worsen droughts, heavy rainfall and heatwaves across both land and oceans.
Seasonal forecasts suggest drier-than-normal conditions could affect Central America, the Caribbean, parts of South America and South Asia, while regions including southern South America and the Horn of Africa may experience increased rainfall.
The agency said the effects could extend into 2027, with global temperatures often peaking during El Niño years.
The warning comes after Europe experienced its most intense recorded late-June heatwave, which scientists said was made significantly more severe by human-driven climate change.
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Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 24th July, covering the latest developments you need to know.
U.S. strikes on Iran entered a 12th consecutive night, while Yemen's Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, urging President Donald Trump to warn Tehran it would be held responsible for any future Houthi attacks.
The U.S. military said it completed a fresh wave of strikes on Iran late on Thursday, marking the 13th consecutive night of American attacks. The latest operation lasted more than two hours, according to U.S. Central Command.
Aleksandar Vučić's visit to Kyiv on 15 July appeared to send a geopolitical signal. But the significance of the trip lies less in the journey itself than in the limits Serbia carefully observed.
Spain has declared a national emergency and evacuated more than 10,000 people after uncontrolled wildfires reached the outskirts of Madrid. Emergency crews have rescued residents as multiple blazes continue to spread across the region.
Brazil has banned the production and sale of foie gras, the French delicacy made from fattened duck or goose liver. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva signed a law late Thursday aimed at ending force-feeding in the country's foie gras industry and stopping imports.
At least 82 people have died after heavy rain triggered devastating floods across northeastern India, Pakistan and Afghanistan this week, with widespread damage to homes, farmland and infrastructure.
Communities in Spain's northwestern Galicia region are bringing back native livestock, including the hardy Cachena breed, to help reduce the risk of devastating wildfires while restoring ecosystems.
Spanish military firefighters worked through the night into Sunday to contain the La Mierla wildfire, which continued to spread across Guadalajara province in central Spain.
At least 10 people were killed and several others reported missing after flash floods struck Rajouri city in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday, according to local media.
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