JP Morgan warns of possible U.S. recession in late 2025

Reuters

The U.S. economy faces a 40% risk of recession in the second half of 2025, JP Morgan analysts said on Wednesday, citing rising tariffs and stagflation concerns.

JP Morgan has downgraded its 2025 U.S. growth forecast from 2% to 1.3%, warning that higher tariffs are weakening consumer demand and eroding corporate profit margins.

Analysts pointed to a troubling mix of slow economic output and persistent inflation, drawing comparisons to the 1970s stagflation era.

The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates gradually - by just 100 basis points through spring 2026 - leaving borrowing costs high and financial conditions tight for longer.

Such pressure could weigh further on the economy, increasing the likelihood of a recession later this year, according to analysts.

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