Oil prices fell below the key $70 per barrel mark last week as increased output from OPEC+ eased supply concerns, while renewed U.S. tariff threats under President Donald Trump weighed on global demand expectations.
Brent crude settled at $68.60 per barrel on Friday, down 2% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3% to $66. Increased production from OPEC+ was a major factor, with the group’s June output rising by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.023 million bpd. The wider OPEC+ alliance raised production by 349,000 bpd to 41.56 million bpd.
OPEC maintained its 2025 demand forecast of 105.13 million bpd, expecting a 1.3 million bpd increase this year. However, analysts warn that stable demand alongside rising supply has deepened fears of a surplus, putting downward pressure on prices.
The mood was further affected after President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on all imports from the European Union, escalating trade tensions. The tariffs take effect on 1 August and add to existing sector-specific duties.
Neil Crosby, senior oil analyst at Sparta, said that macroeconomic concerns such as high U.S. inflation and trade frictions are weighing on prices. He expects oil to hover around the $70 mark unless more drastic events occur, noting geopolitical risks in Iran could push prices higher.
Osama Rizvi from Primary Vision noted that OPEC+ is producing above its quota by 830,000 bpd, while U.S. supply remains strong despite lower prices. Demand remains weak, as shown by rising U.S. distillate stockpiles during the summer driving season. He forecasts prices will stay mostly between $66 and $68 for the rest of the year.
Palash Jain, Middle East oil market expert at Facts Global Energy, said prices will continue to fluctuate within the $66 to $70 range. Although market fundamentals suggest upward pressure, Trump’s tariff threats keep a lid on any sharp price rises.
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Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States clinched a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday, heading for a small weekly loss, as investors weighed new European Union sanctions against Russia.
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, maintaining their highest levels since 23 June, lifted by recent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, along with concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on copper and a forecast for lower U.S. oil production.
Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
Tensions in the region remained high on Tuesday (10 March), as the United States and Iran exchanged increasingly sharp warnings, including threats over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supplies.
China has urged Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve their dispute through dialogue after Chinese envoy Yue Xiaoyong met Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, as fighting between the two neighbours entered its eleventh day.
Kazakhstan has evacuated more than 7,300 citizens from the Middle East since regional tensions escalated, using both air and land routes to bring nationals home while closely monitoring political developments and potential economic effects linked to rising oil prices.
Almost 2,000 people have been evacuated from Iran via Azerbaijan since conflict erupted in the Middle East.
Norwegian police are searching for a suspect after an explosion at the U.S. embassy in Oslo on 8 March caused minor damage but no injuries, in what authorities say may have been a deliberate attack linked to the Middle East crisis.
China has raised the retail prices of petrol and diesel after global oil prices climbed sharply. The country’s top economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), announced the move after reviewing international oil market trends.
Global financial markets remained on edge on Friday as the escalating war involving the United States, Israel and Iran continued to rattle investors, fuelling volatility in stocks and sending energy prices sharply higher.
China’s top leadership has unveiled a new push to turn advanced technologies into large-scale industrial priorities as part of the country’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, which will guide economic and social development from 2026 to 2030.
The European Commission sees no immediate impact on the European Union's security of oil supply from the escalating conflict in the Middle East, it said in an email to EU governments, seen by Reuters on Monday (2 March).
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