Oil prices fell below the key $70 per barrel mark last week as increased output from OPEC+ eased supply concerns, while renewed U.S. tariff threats under President Donald Trump weighed on global demand expectations.
Brent crude settled at $68.60 per barrel on Friday, down 2% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3% to $66. Increased production from OPEC+ was a major factor, with the group’s June output rising by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.023 million bpd. The wider OPEC+ alliance raised production by 349,000 bpd to 41.56 million bpd.
OPEC maintained its 2025 demand forecast of 105.13 million bpd, expecting a 1.3 million bpd increase this year. However, analysts warn that stable demand alongside rising supply has deepened fears of a surplus, putting downward pressure on prices.
The mood was further affected after President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on all imports from the European Union, escalating trade tensions. The tariffs take effect on 1 August and add to existing sector-specific duties.
Neil Crosby, senior oil analyst at Sparta, said that macroeconomic concerns such as high U.S. inflation and trade frictions are weighing on prices. He expects oil to hover around the $70 mark unless more drastic events occur, noting geopolitical risks in Iran could push prices higher.
Osama Rizvi from Primary Vision noted that OPEC+ is producing above its quota by 830,000 bpd, while U.S. supply remains strong despite lower prices. Demand remains weak, as shown by rising U.S. distillate stockpiles during the summer driving season. He forecasts prices will stay mostly between $66 and $68 for the rest of the year.
Palash Jain, Middle East oil market expert at Facts Global Energy, said prices will continue to fluctuate within the $66 to $70 range. Although market fundamentals suggest upward pressure, Trump’s tariff threats keep a lid on any sharp price rises.
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The head of a body representing global airlines said on Wednesday that even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover given disruptions to Middle East refining capacity.
President Donald Trump said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks and Tehran did not have to make a deal as a prerequisite for the conflict to wind down.
Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States clinched a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand.
Efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war appeared to stall as the two sides exchanged fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz. A reported CIA assessment suggested Tehran could withstand a U.S. naval blockade for months despite mounting sanctions and renewed Gulf attacks.
British paratroopers and military medics have been deployed to Tristan da Cunha after a suspected hantavirus case was confirmed, as first evacuation flights carrying passengers from the stricken MV Hondius cruise ship left Tenerife for Madrid and Paris.
Russia is holding a significantly scaled-back Victory Day parade in Moscow on 9 May 2026, reflecting heightened security concerns and the ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its fourth year.
Indonesian rescue teams have located two Singaporeans who went missing after Mount Dukono erupted on Friday (8 May) on the island of Halmahera, though authorities say it remains unclear whether they are alive.
The U.S. Defense Department has released dozens of previously classified files on unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) on Friday (8 May), following an order from President Donald Trump. U.S. officials described as a push for “unprecedented transparency”.
China’s exports grew faster than expected in April, as overseas buyers moved quickly to secure supplies amid fears that the conflict involving Iran could drive up global energy and transport costs.
Asian stocks surged to record highs on 7 May as investors priced in growing hopes of a potential Middle East peace deal, while oil prices eased and the U.S. dollar weakened amid shifting global risk sentiment.
Stocks around the world climbed to fresh record highs on Wednesday (6 May), while oil prices fell sharply, after reports suggested the United States and Iran were nearing an agreement to end conflict.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will raise tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the European Union to 25% next week, up from the 15% level agreed last year, accusing the bloc of failing to comply with its trade commitments.
The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ on 1 May has put renewed focus on one of the most influential groups in global energy - and how its decisions can shape oil prices worldwide.
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