Oil prices fell below the key $70 per barrel mark last week as increased output from OPEC+ eased supply concerns, while renewed U.S. tariff threats under President Donald Trump weighed on global demand expectations.
Brent crude settled at $68.60 per barrel on Friday, down 2% for the week, while West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3% to $66. Increased production from OPEC+ was a major factor, with the group’s June output rising by 220,000 barrels per day to 27.023 million bpd. The wider OPEC+ alliance raised production by 349,000 bpd to 41.56 million bpd.
OPEC maintained its 2025 demand forecast of 105.13 million bpd, expecting a 1.3 million bpd increase this year. However, analysts warn that stable demand alongside rising supply has deepened fears of a surplus, putting downward pressure on prices.
The mood was further affected after President Trump announced new 30% tariffs on all imports from the European Union, escalating trade tensions. The tariffs take effect on 1 August and add to existing sector-specific duties.
Neil Crosby, senior oil analyst at Sparta, said that macroeconomic concerns such as high U.S. inflation and trade frictions are weighing on prices. He expects oil to hover around the $70 mark unless more drastic events occur, noting geopolitical risks in Iran could push prices higher.
Osama Rizvi from Primary Vision noted that OPEC+ is producing above its quota by 830,000 bpd, while U.S. supply remains strong despite lower prices. Demand remains weak, as shown by rising U.S. distillate stockpiles during the summer driving season. He forecasts prices will stay mostly between $66 and $68 for the rest of the year.
Palash Jain, Middle East oil market expert at Facts Global Energy, said prices will continue to fluctuate within the $66 to $70 range. Although market fundamentals suggest upward pressure, Trump’s tariff threats keep a lid on any sharp price rises.
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Oil prices rose on Monday after the United States clinched a trade deal with the European Union and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand.
Oil prices edged higher on Friday, heading for a small weekly loss, as investors weighed new European Union sanctions against Russia.
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, maintaining their highest levels since 23 June, lifted by recent attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, along with concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on copper and a forecast for lower U.S. oil production.
Oil futures fell on Friday after Iran reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and amid expectations that major producers are set to agree to raise their output this weekend.
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