Friedrich Merz's bid for power: A deep dive into the vote, CDU strategy, and AFD's standing

On May 6, 2025, Friedrich Merz faced an unprecedented setback before ultimately securing his position as Germany's new chancellor.

After becoming the designated chancellor candidate following his party's victory in the February 2025 federal election, Merz experienced a historic failure in his first confirmation vote before prevailing in a second ballot. This remarkable turn of events has significantly weakened his authority from the outset and highlighted the fragility of his coalition government, while potentially strengthening the standing of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Historic Vote and Unprecedented Parliamentary Defeat
In a shocking development that sent ripples through German politics, Friedrich Merz failed to secure the necessary parliamentary backing to become chancellor in his first attempt-an unprecedented occurrence in post-war German history. Despite leading a coalition with a theoretical majority of 328 seats in the 630-member Bundestag, Merz received only 310 votes in the initial secret ballot, falling six short of the required 316 votes. This marked the first time since 1949 that a chancellor candidate failed to win on the first ballot.

The failure was particularly embarrassing as it revealed significant internal opposition within Merz's own coalition. At least 18 lawmakers from either his Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc or their coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), declined to support him despite the coalition agreement signed just a day earlier. Bundestag President Julia Kloeckner suspended the parliamentary session after this surprising outcome to allow parties to consider their next steps.

In a hastily arranged second vote held the same day, Merz managed to secure 325 votes, surpassing the required threshold and finally allowing him to take office as Germany's 10th post-war chancellor. The successful second round vote allowed Merz to be sworn in, but the damage to his authority had already been done.

CDU's Electoral Victory and Coalition Formation
Merz's path to power began with the February 2025 federal election, where his CDU/CSU alliance emerged as the strongest political force, receiving 28.5% of the vote. This victory came after a snap election triggered by the collapse of Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition government in November 2024. The election results showed the CDU/CSU gaining significant support in western Germany while the AfD dominated in the eastern states, ultimately finishing second with approximately 20% of the vote.

Following the election, Merz engaged in coalition negotiations with the SPD, which had secured 16.4% of the vote. On May 5, 2025, they finalized their coalition agreement after lengthy negotiations spanning several months. The formation of this "black-red" coalition (named after the traditional colors of the CDU and SPD) was driven partly by the necessity to exclude the AfD from government.

However, the coalition was not formed out of natural political alignment but rather as a pragmatic arrangement to establish a governing majority. As Reuters noted, this "unwelcome" coalition emerged as "the only two-party option left after the nationalist, anti-immigrant AfD came second in February's election and all other parties refused to work with it due to Germany's painful Nazi past".

Policy Shifts and Strategic Compromises
Even before officially taking office, Merz made significant policy shifts that contradicted his campaign positions, potentially alienating some of his supporters. Most notably, Merz, who had campaigned as a fiscal conservative advocating adherence to Germany's debt brake (which limits deficits to 0.35% of GDP), pushed through a constitutional amendment to relax these rules.

In March 2025, Merz proposed a significant increase in defense spending, stating: "Germany and Europe must quickly strengthen their defence capabilities. The CDU, CSU and SPD will table a motion to amend the Basic Law so that defence spending above 1% of GDP is exempt from the debt brake". This amendment allowed the creation of a €500 billion ($570 billion) special fund for infrastructure and climate projects and exempted defense spending from constitutional debt limits.

This trillion-euro spending package represented a dramatic departure from Merz's earlier fiscal conservatism and was justified by citing the Russian threat and the need to establish "a new European defense community". The plan received support from European allies but triggered criticism from fiscal conservatives within his own party, with a March 2025 poll finding that 70% of Germans opposed the measure and one-third of CDU voters questioned Merz's integrity over the reversal.

On immigration and asylum policy, Merz has maintained a consistently conservative stance. He described limiting irregular migration as "the most important task after the 2025 German federal election" and criticized Angela Merkel's open borders policy during the 2015 migrant crisis as "fatal". His policy proposals include comprehensive border rejections, speeding up deportations, and increasing detention capacities for those required to leave Germany.

AfD's Standing and Response to Merz's Setback
The far-right AfD has capitalized on Merz's parliamentary setback, framing it as evidence of weakness and instability in the mainstream political establishment. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called for new elections following Merz's initial failure, describing it as "a good day for Germany" and urging Merz to "step aside and the way should be cleared for a general election".

The AfD had already gained significant traction in the February election, performing particularly well in eastern German states. In the state of Thuringia, for instance, the AfD received 38.6% of the vote, and in Saxony, it secured 37.3%. Overall, the party won 110 list seats and 42 constituency seats in the Bundestag, with particular dominance in former East German states where it won 41 out of 44 constituencies.

Just days before Merz's chancellor vote, the AfD had been officially designated as an extremist threat to democracy by Germany's domestic intelligence agency (BVS). This classification could potentially lead to funding cuts and legal challenges for the party. However, the political instability highlighted by Merz's voting debacle may strengthen the AfD's narrative about establishment dysfunction.

As Manfred Guellner, head of polling firm Forsa, stated: "Trust in political institutions is further eroding. The AfD is the clear beneficiary of this debacle". Similarly, Alex Clarkson, a lecturer at King's College London, noted that "For the AfD, this indication of internal instability offers additional chances to depict other parties as part of an establishment cartel that can only be overthrown by the far right".

Political Implications and Future Challenges
Merz's initial failure and subsequent narrow victory have severely weakened his authority as he begins his chancellorship. The Telegraph described the situation as a "near humiliation" that represents "a huge blow to his authority". This diminished position may complicate his ability to implement his policy agenda and effectively lead the coalition government.

The fact that the vote was conducted via secret ballot-a constitutional requirement designed to ensure representatives act according to their consciences rather than yielding to potential dictatorial pressure-makes it impossible to identify who withheld support from Merz. This uncertainty may foster ongoing suspicion and instability within the coalition.

Several groups might have opposed Merz in the first round: CDU/CSU members dissatisfied with his debt brake reversal, politicians who missed out on ministerial positions, SPD members frustrated by cabinet selections, or left-leaning MPs opposed to Merz's immigration policies and previous alignment with the AfD.

Internationally, Merz faces significant challenges as he assumes office, including responding to the economic and geopolitical pressures created by U.S. President Donald Trump's policies. A global trade conflict sparked by Trump's extensive import tariffs threatens to plunge the German economy into a third consecutive year of recession. Additionally, Trump's actions have raised questions about U.S. commitment to NATO, compelling Europe to accelerate its defense spending.

Conclusion
Friedrich Merz's path to the German chancellery has been marked by unexpected obstacles and compromises. His unprecedented failure in the first confirmation vote has significantly weakened his starting position despite eventually securing parliamentary backing in the second round. This early setback may undermine his ability to govern effectively and strengthen the position of the far-right AfD, which has capitalized on the political instability.

The CDU's strategy of forming a coalition with the SPD was driven by practical necessity rather than natural alignment, creating inherent tensions that were immediately visible in the voting process. Merz's policy shifts, particularly regarding fiscal discipline, have alienated some of his traditional supporters while failing to fully satisfy his coalition partners.

As Merz begins his tenure as chancellor, he faces the challenge of rebuilding his authority while addressing Germany's economic stagnation, implementing controversial immigration policies, and navigating complex international relationships. The coming months will reveal whether Merz can overcome this inauspicious start to provide the stable leadership he promised during his campaign or whether his weakened position will further benefit political forces like the AfD that thrive on establishment instability.

Copied