Global investors are eyeing defence and energy sectors as European leaders rally behind Ukraine amid signs the U.S. may push Kyiv to accept a peace deal favourable to Russia.
Markets are facing a turbulent week as geopolitical risk rises over Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday. European leaders, including those from Germany, France and the UK, will also attend, seeking to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in the talks.
Trump, fresh from a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, said on Saturday that he wanted a “rapid” peace deal — comments that analysts see as increasing pressure on Kyiv to concede territory in exchange for an end to the war.
“Trump seems inclined to reduce or even end U.S. support for Ukraine. Putin got him interested in business deals,” said Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding in a client note. “The U.S. may lift its sanctions on Russia and invest in Russia instead. Europe will have to spend a lot more for its own defence.”
The geopolitical shift is fuelling speculation about new U.S.-Russia cooperation on Arctic oil and gas projects. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett flagged the potential exploitation of 15 % of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 % of undiscovered natural gas in the region, warning of a possible deep bear market for energy.
Brent crude, which dropped more than 1 % on Friday to trade near $66 a barrel, is still “priced for a Ukraine peace deal,” Hartnett said.
European defence stocks have surged since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with shares in Italy’s Leonardo up more than 600 % and Germany’s Rheinmetall gaining 1,500 % over the period.
The euro has also strengthened, up 13 % against the dollar this year, trading around $1.17 on Friday.
Ukraine’s sovereign bonds — a key sentiment barometer — rallied earlier this month as news of the Trump–Putin summit broke but have since stalled at around 55 cents on the dollar. “I would think they will be a bit weaker… the mood seems to favour Russia following Friday’s summit,” said Jeff Grills, head of emerging market debt at Aegon Asset Management.
European leaders are expected to press for strong security guarantees and a clear role for Ukraine in any final settlement during the upcoming talks at The White House.
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Israeli forces carried out more than 120 airstrikes across southern and eastern Lebanon on Tuesday (26 May), killing at least 31 people in one of the heaviest bombardments in recent weeks, according to Lebanese security and health officials.
Hamas has confirmed the death of its armed wing chief, Mohammad Odeh, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza City, according to the Israeli military and Gaza health officials.
Spanish police visited the headquarters of the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) in Madrid on Wednesday as part of a widening High Court investigation into alleged attempts to interfere with judicial proceedings involving party and government figures.
Tajikistan is hosting the Fourth International Conference on the International Decade for Action “Water for Sustainable Development” from 25 to 28 May in Dushanbe, bringing together thousands of participants from governments, international organisations and financial institutions.
Start your day informed with the AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top stories for 26 May, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Iran has called Monday's U.S. strikes on it 'a gross violation' of their ceasefire. The U.S. military said it carried out defensive strikes in southern Iran after boats were seen laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. says a peace deal may require several more days.
Shortly after nine o’clock on Tuesday morning (26 May), a sleek white train eased into Tbilisi’s central railway station, a couple of minutes behind schedule, carrying passengers from Baku for the first time since 2020.
The new AnewZ documentary, TARGET: Yerevan, builds its explosive case on exclusive, secret recordings originally published by Minval Politika.
Dozens of people were killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon on Tuesday, Lebanese officials said, straining a fragile ceasefire agreed between the countries in April. The attacks came as Iran accused the U.S. of violating a separate ceasefire with strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Spanish police visited the headquarters of the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) in Madrid on Wednesday as part of a widening High Court investigation into alleged attempts to interfere with judicial proceedings involving party and government figures.
Latvia is strengthening its anti-drone capabilities along its borders with Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus after several drones entered the NATO member’s airspace, according to a senior military official.
NASA has revealed the next phase of its plan to build a permanent base on the Moon, outlining the vehicles, robotic landers and hopping drones it intends to send as part of the project.
Britain and Poland are set to sign a new defence and security treaty on Wednesday (27 May), deepening cooperation between the two NATO allies as European governments respond to what they describe as a growing range of hostile threats across the continent.
Chinese investigators have uncovered hidden tunnels, missing worker trackers and fake underground walls during an initial investigation into the country’s deadliest mining disaster in more than 15 years.
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