Global investors are eyeing defence and energy sectors as European leaders rally behind Ukraine amid signs the U.S. may push Kyiv to accept a peace deal favourable to Russia.
Markets are facing a turbulent week as geopolitical risk rises over Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Monday. European leaders, including those from Germany, France and the UK, will also attend, seeking to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in the talks.
Trump, fresh from a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, said on Saturday that he wanted a “rapid” peace deal — comments that analysts see as increasing pressure on Kyiv to concede territory in exchange for an end to the war.
“Trump seems inclined to reduce or even end U.S. support for Ukraine. Putin got him interested in business deals,” said Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmieding in a client note. “The U.S. may lift its sanctions on Russia and invest in Russia instead. Europe will have to spend a lot more for its own defence.”
The geopolitical shift is fuelling speculation about new U.S.-Russia cooperation on Arctic oil and gas projects. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett flagged the potential exploitation of 15 % of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 % of undiscovered natural gas in the region, warning of a possible deep bear market for energy.
Brent crude, which dropped more than 1 % on Friday to trade near $66 a barrel, is still “priced for a Ukraine peace deal,” Hartnett said.
European defence stocks have surged since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with shares in Italy’s Leonardo up more than 600 % and Germany’s Rheinmetall gaining 1,500 % over the period.
The euro has also strengthened, up 13 % against the dollar this year, trading around $1.17 on Friday.
Ukraine’s sovereign bonds — a key sentiment barometer — rallied earlier this month as news of the Trump–Putin summit broke but have since stalled at around 55 cents on the dollar. “I would think they will be a bit weaker… the mood seems to favour Russia following Friday’s summit,” said Jeff Grills, head of emerging market debt at Aegon Asset Management.
European leaders are expected to press for strong security guarantees and a clear role for Ukraine in any final settlement during the upcoming talks at The White House.
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One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a fresh attack on Riyadh's international airport on Sunday, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed by Yemen's Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
Yemen's Houthis renewed warning to airlines, airport workers, and travellers against using Saudi airports, saying the warning should be taken seriously and that the kingdom “bore responsibility for failed interceptions”, a day after an attack on Riyadh's international airport that killed 12 people.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said late Monday that it intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by the Houthi group toward Khamis Mushait in southwestern Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi movement has escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting the airport in Riyadh and other cities, killing more than a dozen people.
The Kremlin on Monday rejected a 60-day ceasefire idea proposed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to allow his country to hold presidential elections, saying it wanted an overall peace deal instead.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia hit at least six energy targets in deadly strikes across Ukraine, showing Moscow is unwilling to accept the energy ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg joined high school students protesting outside a school in the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis on Tuesday, as a wave of student demonstrations continues across France.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited a newly opened defence museum displaying weapons developed under his leadership, including an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States.
Southeast Asian foreign ministers are set to discuss measures to tackle transboundary haze during preparatory meetings ahead of the ASEAN summit in November, as forest and land fires in Indonesia continue to affect air quality across the region, the Philippines said on Tuesday.
Britain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said the United Kingdom believes Iran was likely behind an alleged plot connected to RAF Fairford, a military airbase in Gloucestershire in England that has played a role in U.S. operations against Iran, escalating tensions between London and Tehran.
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