A failure by the U.S. and Iran to reach an agreement on a UN-backed fertiliser shipping plan for the Strait of Hormuz within weeks could trigger a food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, a senior UN official has warned.
Jorge Moreira da Silva, executive director of the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and coordinator of the UN Strait of Hormuz Task Force, said the proposed system could become operational within seven to 10 days of Washington and Tehran reaching an agreement.
“It’s absolutely crucial to get the deal in the next few weeks. Otherwise, we will miss the planting season,” he said in Bangkok on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.
The UN established a task force in March to develop a safe passage mechanism for fertilisers and related raw materials through the strait. The plan is ready but still requires approval from the parties involved in the conflict and regional countries.
Under the proposal, a coordination centre in Oman would register vessels and organise passage, while UN monitors would work alongside local authorities to verify cargo. The mechanism could allow five ships to pass through the strait each day, Moreira da Silva said.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried roughly one-third of globally traded urea, the world's most widely used fertiliser, and nearly half of seaborne sulphur. The waterway is also a vital route for global oil shipments.
UN analysis cited by Moreira da Silva shows daily shipping traffic has plunged from nearly 130 vessels before the war to around five over the past week, a decline of more than 95 per cent.
Fertiliser prices have surged by 25 to 30 per cent since the conflict began at the end of February, he said. Rising fertiliser, energy and transport costs are making essential agricultural supplies harder to afford, threatening harvests and driving up food prices.
The World Food Programme estimates that nearly 45 million people could face acute food insecurity as a result of the disruption, according to Moreira da Silva.
An August report by the International Chamber of Commerce also warned that prolonged disruption could push up commodity prices by as much as 81 per cent for cereals, 66 per cent for oil crops and 30 per cent for animal products.
Attacks on cargo vessels in the Black Sea and threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants against a key Red Sea shipping route are adding to concerns over global food supplies.
Washington and Tehran have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since an interim ceasefire collapsed in June, but negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked.
Iran has set conditions for reopening the waterway, while the U.S. insists that talks must address Tehran's nuclear programme from the outset.
Moreira da Silva said the UN mechanism could be implemented independently of broader negotiations, enabling fertiliser shipments to resume while diplomatic efforts continue.
“The immediate priority must be to reduce risks, protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, build trust and confidence and restore safe and predictable movement through the Strait,” he said.
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