The signing of a historic 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran on 17 June has formally ended months of high-intensity conflict. Yet despite the agreement, tensions surrounding Lebanon threaten the durability of the fragile peace.
Central to the agreement is the "Lebanon clause", a provision requiring a ceasefire across "all fronts". Despite this explicit commitment, a significant gap remains between White House diplomacy and Israel's security calculations.
Professor Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies at SOAS University of London, argues that the conflict's resolution represents a structural shift in global affairs.
"Ultimately, the agreement marks the final collapse of Pax Americana in the Persian Gulf region and highlights the resilience of Iranian state sovereignty against external pressure," he says.
The inclusion of Lebanon as a central pillar of the U.S.-Iran negotiations underscores the country's strategic importance in regional geopolitics. For decades, Tehran has tied its regional strategy to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia movement with a powerful military wing. This alliance forms the core of a wider "Axis of Resistance" linking the Houthis in Yemen, Palestinian factions in Gaza and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq.
"Iran explicitly included a ceasefire in Lebanon in the negotiations in order to halt the brutal Israeli campaign there," explains Adib-Moghaddam.
However, enforcing the clause remains the most volatile challenge facing the agreement. A ceasefire largely held in Lebanon on Monday, marking the longest lull in three months of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. A senior Lebanese security official said adherence had been "almost total" since Saturday evening, although an Israeli tank fired shells towards a village near Tyre, sound grenades were deployed in two other locations and an Israeli drone flew over Beirut.
The continuing conflict has already tested the interim U.S.-Iran deal, prompting Tehran to announce over the weekend that it had once again closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz, claiming Washington had failed to honour its commitment to halt the fighting in Lebanon.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, leading Washington's delegation in Switzerland alongside White House envoy Jared Kushner and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, disputed that the strait had been closed, although commercially available shipping data showed an immediate impact. By Monday, Vance said progress had been made towards ending hostilities and that the Strait of Hormuz was open, describing Lebanon as "a work in progress".
To secure the truce, a joint statement issued after U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar confirmed both sides had agreed to establish a "de-confliction cell" to oversee compliance with the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon. Israel has yet to comment on the initiative.
The human cost of the conflict remains severe. Since Hezbollah opened fire in support of Iran on 2 March, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed 4,106 people, including 773 women, children and healthcare workers, according to the Lebanese health ministry. The attacks have also displaced around 1.2 million people. On the Israeli side, at least 32 soldiers and four civilians have been killed.
Despite the recent calm, fears of renewed fighting continue to prevent many displaced residents from returning home. Hassan Wazni, director of a hospital in the heavily bombarded southern city of Nabatieh, noted that a previous ceasefire announced on Friday quickly collapsed, with 20 people in Lebanon killed in Israeli attacks on Saturday.
"People are still uneasy," Wazni told Reuters, while local municipal councils have warned residents against returning prematurely.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration has repeatedly vowed to maintain an Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, viewing any freeze in hostilities as an unacceptable security risk. On Monday, Netanyahu said Israeli troops had "full freedom of action" and would remain in Lebanon "as long as is necessary".
According to Adib-Moghaddam, Israel is highly likely to continue military operations, not least to disrupt further diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran.
"The ruling Netanyahu administration's primary modus vivendi is rooted in deterrence via brutal militarism," he observes. "However, repeatedly this approach has failed. For the first time in recent history, the current administration in the United States is massively criticising the Netanyahu administration for their conduct."
When the military campaign began on 28 February, the stated objectives of the U.S.-Israeli coalition were clear: the destruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, an end to Tehran's regional alliances and explicit regime change.
The final text of the MoU, however, reveals a significant retreat from those ambitions. The framework legally commits the U.S. to respect Iran's territorial integrity and refrain from internal interference, echoing provisions contained in the 1981 Algiers Accords.
The economic architecture of the agreement further illustrates the limits of Western pressure.
The agreement mandates:
"Faced with the reality of an intact Iranian government, Donald Trump reversed his rhetoric," says Adib-Moghaddam, pointing to the U.S. president's shift in tone at the G7 summit, where he praised Iranian negotiators as "rational, strong, and smart".
Crucially, the MoU contains no requirement for Iran to dismantle its ballistic missile programme or sever ties with its regional allies.
If the U.S.-Iran agreement holds, Lebanon's internal political balance is expected to shift significantly. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has discussed efforts to preserve the ceasefire during calls with Vance and regional mediators. However, the country's political establishment has faced intense domestic criticism, with opponents accusing it of appearing subservient to foreign security demands during the height of the bombardment.
In contrast, Hezbollah appears likely to emerge from the conflict politically strengthened.
"I am in no doubt that Iran will continue to tie its regional strategy and interests to its allies, in particular Hezbollah," says Adib-Moghaddam. "With the Trump administration understanding that Iran cannot be subdued militarily, every Iranian ally, including Hezbollah, will be galvanised by the new status quo."
The developments point to a broader transition towards an increasingly post-Western regional order. By launching a high-intensity campaign that failed to achieve its principal military and political objectives, Washington and Tel Aviv have inadvertently highlighted the limits of conventional military power.
The MoU may ultimately be remembered as a historical turning point at which the language of absolute military victory gave way to the practical realities of diplomatic compromise.
Gen Z protests swept 34 German cities on Saturday (31 October) over education, living costs and military service proposals. Violence erupted in Fra...
Iran designated Britain's Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as terrorist organisations on Sunday, (1 November), and classified the country's f...
Since 2021, only 9 per cent of $8 billion in humanitarian aid for Afghanistan can be traced beyond initial recipients in public re...
The U.S. has approved the sale of 500 Patriot PAC-3 missiles to Ukraine in a deal worth an estimated $2.1 billion, but Kyiv could face years of delays before receiving the weapons it urgently needs to defend against intensifying Russian attacks.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered Iran's armed forces to respond to any threat immediately and without geographical limits in statements posted to social media platforms on Saturday (31 October).
Demonstrators carrying Iranian flags and placards supporting the hijab gathered outside the Azerbaijani Embassy in London.
A Chinese-made AI chip has matched Nvidia’s H200 in tests conducted by its developer, marking a potential breakthrough in China’s efforts to reduce its dependence on foreign technology.
A hacking group linked to North Korea is widely believed to be behind the theft of $6.3 billion from cryptocurrency giant Binance, a cyberattack that experts describe as the largest cryptocurrency heist on record.
Gen Z protests swept 34 German cities on Saturday (31 October) over education, living costs and military service proposals. Violence erupted in Frankfurt, where shops were looted and police reported Molotov cocktail attacks.
Iran designated Britain's Royal Navy and Royal Air Force as terrorist organisations on Sunday, (1 November), and classified the country's foreign intelligence agency, MI6, as a hostile group, according to a statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
Thousands protested in Albania's capital, Tirana, on Saturday (31 October), demanding Prime Minister Edi Rama's resignation over perceived corruption allegations and dissatisfaction with the government over a lack of jobs and poor education standards.
Russia has agreed to work with Ghana on developing a 2,000-megawatt nuclear power plant following talks at the Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow, Ghanaian Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa said on Saturday.
Foreign ministers from the U.S., Japan, Australia and India raised concerns over export restrictions and economic coercion at a Quad meeting in Atlanta, U.S., on Saturday, 31 October 2026, according to their joint statement.
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment