Russia will continue to adhere to the strategic missile and warhead ceilings set under the now-expired New START agreement, provided the United States does not exceed those thresholds, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told lawmakers on Wednesday.

The landmark 2010 arms control deal formally expired on 5 February, leaving Washington and Moscow without legally binding restrictions on their strategic nuclear forces for the first time in decades. Despite that, Moscow says it will voluntarily remain within the previous limits - on the condition that the U.S. does the same.

Lavrov told members of Russia’s lower house of parliament that the Kremlin’s previously announced pause on expanding beyond treaty caps remains in place but only so long as the United States refrains from surpassing them.

President Donald Trump has declined a proposal to continue observing the treaty for another year. Instead, he has argued for negotiating a broader and updated framework that reflects what he describes as a new security reality.

Lavrov said Russia sees no immediate indication that Washington intends to move beyond the former limits. He also renewed calls for structured talks on strategic stability, describing such dialogue as overdue.

The expiration of New START has intensified debate over the risk of a broader nuclear competition, potentially involving China, which maintains a smaller arsenal but is expanding its capabilities rapidly.

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• Why the New START nuclear treaty matters

Security analysts say Russia’s position allows it to avoid immediate escalation while keeping room to modernise systems not previously covered by the treaty. At the same time, Moscow faces financial pressure linked to its prolonged war in Ukraine, a factor that could weigh on any major expansion of its nuclear programme.

Even if fighting in Ukraine were to ease, experts note that Russia would still need to rebuild its conventional forces, which would limit how aggressively it could pursue a large-scale nuclear build-up.

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