U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have discussed an ambitious March goal for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a peace deal, though that timeline is likely to slip given a lack of agreement on the key issue of territory, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
Under the framework being discussed by U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators, any deal would be submitted to a referendum by Ukrainian voters, who would simultaneously cast ballots in national elections, according to five sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private deliberations.
The U.S. negotiating team - led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner - has told Ukrainian counterparts in recent meetings in Abu Dhabi and Miami that it would be best if that vote occurred soon, three of those sources said.
Reuters quoted two sources as saying Trump is likely to focus more on domestic affairs as the November congressional midterms approach, meaning top U.S. officials will have less time and political capital to spend on sealing a peace accord.
A second round of U.S.-brokered talks concluded on Thursday (5 February) in Abu Dhabi with the release of 314 prisoners of war and a commitment to resume discussions soon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the next trilateral meeting was likely to take place soon in the United States.
Two of the sources said U.S. and Ukrainian officials had discussed the possibility that the national election and referendum could occur in May.
But several sources with visibility on the negotiations described the U.S.-proposed timeline as fanciful.
Ukrainian election authorities have projected that it would take around six months to organise an election under current conditions.
"The Americans are in a hurry," said one source familiar with the matter, adding that a vote could be organized in less than six months, but it would still take a substantial amount of time.
Elections are currently prohibited in Ukraine, as it is under martial law. Organising a vote would, therefore, require legislative changes.
Ukraine is said to be demanding a ceasefire throughout the voting campaign to protect the referendum's integrity, and has argued the Kremlin has a history of breaking its word on agreed-upon halts in fighting.
"Kyiv's position is that nothing can be agreed until the security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States and partners are in place," said one source.
The White House declined to comment. The Ukrainian president's office and the Russian embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
One Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy was open to the idea of elections in the near future, which has cropped up repeatedly as a U.S. demand since Trump took office in January 2025.
Zelensky, whose support has declined since the beginning of Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion but remains well above 50%, is confident he would win, that official said.
While Ukraine has sent high-level political delegates to the peace talks, including Zelenskyy's chief of staff and the head of his parliamentary faction, Russia's negotiating team is military-focused and led by the head of the GRU military intelligence agency, Admiral Igor Kostyukov.
Kostyukov's deputy, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot in Moscow on Friday by an unknown assailant. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Ukraine of assassinating the general to sabotage peace talks.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told Reuters that Kyiv had nothing to do with the attack.
The biggest obstacle to a near-term peace in Ukraine is a lack of clarity about the fate of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, several sources said.
Russia is demanding control of the entire Donbas as part of any potential peace settlement, even as Kyiv still controls over 2,000 square miles (5,180 square km) of the territory. Ukraine describes that demand as unacceptable, though officials in Kyiv have expressed openness to exploring creative solutions, such as a demilitarised or free-trade zone.
"There's still no progress on the territorial question," a source familiar with the matter said.
The fate of the Zaporizhzhia power plant, Europe's largest nuclear power station, which sits in Russian-occupied territory, has also proved a sticking point.
One source noted Russia has pushed back on a U.S. proposal under which Washington would control the plant and distribute its power to both Russia and Ukraine. Moscow insists that it should control the plant, while offering Ukraine cheap power, a proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, the source said.
Furthermore, should those issues be resolved, Ukrainian voters could still reject any territorial concessions that are put to a referendum.
Russia occupies about 20% of Ukraine's national territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas seized before the 2022 invasion. Analysts say Russia has gained about 1.3% of Ukrainian territory since early 2023.
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