Putin’s Ukraine aims unchanged

U.S. intelligence sources indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin still intends to take control of all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that once belonged to the Soviet Union. These assessments contradict Putin’s repeated claims that he poses no threat to Europe.

The intelligence findings have remained consistent since Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022 and align with evaluations from British and other European security services. U.S. House Intelligence Committee member Mike Quigley commented, “The intelligence has always shown that Putin wants more. The Europeans are convinced of it, the Poles are absolutely convinced, and the Baltics believe they are first in line.”

Currently, Russia controls around 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk, parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the strategic Crimean peninsula. Putin claims Crimea and all four provinces as Russian territory. U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly urged Kyiv to withdraw from the small part of Donetsk under Ukrainian control—a proposal rejected by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and most Ukrainians.

Security Guarantees and Peace Talks

Trump’s negotiating team—his son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire Steve Witkoff—has been discussing a 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian, and European officials. U.S., Ukrainian, and European negotiators reportedly reached broad agreement on guarantees for Ukraine’s security against future Russian aggression.

Some sources indicate that these guarantees could be contingent on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, though other diplomats insist that alternative options are being explored since Zelenskiy has ruled out any territorial concessions. The plan envisions primarily European security forces deployed in neighbouring countries and within Ukraine, away from the front lines, to help deter future attacks. The U.S. would provide intelligence and other support, with the package ratified by the U.S. Senate and backed by U.S.-supported air patrols over Ukraine.

Zelenskiy appeared cautious, noting, “There’s a question I still can’t get an answer to: what will these security guarantees actually do?”

Russia Maintains Territorial Demands

Putin signalled no willingness to compromise, insisting that his terms must be met after advancing 6,000 km² this year. U.S. officials have not publicly commented on how they will respond, though some Trump administration figures have suggested Russia has a right to claim Crimea and the four provinces. Other officials acknowledge that Putin may be unwilling to accept anything less than his original objective of conquering Ukraine. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, “I don’t know if Putin wants to do a deal or take the whole country. These are things he has said openly. We know what they wanted to achieve initially when the war began. They haven’t achieved those objectives.”

From an analytical standpoint, U.S. intelligence suggests that progress in peace talks depends not only on negotiations at the table but also on Putin’s strategic objectives, which remain ambitious. The security of Ukraine and the stability of Europe continue to face significant risks, and the success of any peace plan hinges on both U.S. and European support and on whether the Russian leadership is willing to compromise.

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