Elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia offer early test of Trump's agenda

Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will choose their next governors on Tuesday in two crucial races that will serve as an early indicator of how the American electorate is responding to President Donald Trump's unprecedented nine months in office.

Meanwhile, in New York City's mayoral race, 34-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani faces 67-year-old former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent. This campaign has highlighted the Democratic Party's generational and ideological divides as it seeks to repair its tarnished image.

In California, voters will decide whether to grant Democratic lawmakers the authority to redraw the state’s congressional map, intensifying the national debate on redistricting, which could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections next year.

Polls will close first in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET (00:00 GMT), followed by New Jersey, New York, and California throughout the evening.

Democrats, in particular, will be watching Tuesday’s results closely, as the party remains excluded from power in Washington and is struggling to find a path forward in the political wilderness.

Former President Barack Obama – still the most popular figure within the party – headlined rallies in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend, urging voters to elect Democrats to counter what he called Trump’s "lawlessness."

"The state of the Democratic Party is poor," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "They need all the encouragement they can get."

Voter enthusiasm appears to be high, with more than 3 million people voting early in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey, significantly surpassing figures from four years ago. In New York City, 735,000 ballots were cast, more than four times the number in 2021.

The race in New Jersey has emerged as the most fiercely contested, with opinion polls showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a congresswoman and former Navy pilot, holding a narrow lead over her Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker and small-business owner.

The campaign has shattered state spending records, with both national parties investing millions into the race.

The other races appear less competitive. In Virginia, former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger holds a comfortable lead over Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, according to opinion polls.

Mamdani has led Cuomo by double digits, with Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa trailing far behind. California’s Proposition 50, which would establish a new Democratic-backed congressional map aiming to flip five Republican seats, is expected to pass.

Affordability and Trump's impact on the races

While Tuesday’s results will offer some insight into the mood of American voters, the midterm elections are still a year away, a long time in the fast-moving Trump era.

"The contrasts we hear in these elections are similar to what we might hear a year from now," said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist.

"Typically, the framing of these elections provides useful lessons, even if the outcomes aren’t automatically predictive."

Congressional races will unfold across all 50 states, in both Republican and Democratic districts. "Nothing that happens in Virginia or New Jersey will give us much insight into what will happen in a congressional district in Missouri or a Senate race in Maine," said Republican strategist Douglas Heye.

For Democrats, Tuesday’s races offer a chance to test different strategies. Spanberger and Sherrill, both moderate Democrats with national security backgrounds, have made Trump the focal point of their campaigns, hoping to harness voter frustration with his administration.

Trump has given them ammunition during the ongoing government shutdown, freezing billions of dollars in funding for a crucial rail tunnel between New Jersey and New York, and threatening to fire federal workers, many of whom live in Virginia.

Mamdani, running as an outsider candidate, has proposed more ambitious left-wing policies, such as freezing rents for nearly a million apartments, taxing the wealthy, and making the city’s bus service free.

Late on Monday, Trump endorsed Cuomo, urging his supporters to vote for the former governor and repeating his threat to cut federal funds to New York City if Mamdani wins.

Despite their ideological differences, all three candidates have relentlessly focused on the rising cost of living, an issue that remains a top concern for voters after the presidential election.

"Whether it’s in New York City, Virginia, or New Jersey – indeed, across the country – Democratic candidates are focusing on the economy, affordability, and the issues that are driving anxiety in this country right now," said Ken Martin, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, in an interview with Reuters.

For Republicans, Tuesday’s elections will test whether the voters who backed Trump in 2024 will still show up when he is not on the ballot. In New Jersey, Ciattarelli has campaigned heavily in traditionally Democratic areas, aiming to replicate Trump’s success with Black and Latino voters in 2024.

However, both he and Earle-Sears, running in Democratic-leaning states, face a dilemma: criticising Trump risks alienating his supporters, but embracing him too closely could turn away moderate and independent voters who disapprove of his policies.

Trump remains unpopular, with 57% of Americans disapproving of his job performance, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Democrats are not necessarily benefiting from his unpopularity, as respondents were split on whether they would prefer Democrats or Republicans in the 2026 elections.

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