Dutch Liberals under Rob Jetten take surprise lead in election exit poll

Centrist liberal party D66, led by Rob Jetten, has taken a shock lead in the Dutch election, according to the main exit poll, just two years after the party ranked sixth in the previous vote.

The Ipsos I&O exit poll projects D66 with 27 seats, narrowly ahead of Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam populist party, which secured 25 seats in the last election. While the final result remains too close to call, Dutch exit polls are generally reliable.

Three other parties are close behind, including the conservative liberals, the Green-Labour party, and the Christian Democrats.

Former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans resigned as leader of the Green-Labour party after the disappointing exit poll results. The left-wing party is projected to drop to 20 seats, down from 25 in 2023, highlighting the challenges faced by progressive forces in this vote.

Wilders led the polls for much of the campaign but lost momentum after abandoning his own coalition plans in June over asylum and migration disputes. Jetten, 38, ran a polished campaign, highlighted by strong TV debate performances and even appearances on a game show, boosting his public profile.

Supporters gathered in Leiden as initial results were confirmed by a second exit poll shortly after 21:30 local time (20:30 GMT). “It was a campaign of optimism… the Dutch are tired of two years of standstill. We want progress,” said D66 supporter Eline.

Key issues in the election included migration, overcrowded asylum centers, and the chronic housing shortage of nearly 400,000 homes. D66 has proposed building 10 new cities to tackle the crisis.

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