Norwegians head to the polls Monday on the final day of a close parliamentary election, with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere’s Labour Party narrowly favoured to win. Rising living costs, inflation, and global crises are shaping voter choices.
The left-wing bloc of Labour and four smaller parties is expected to win 88 seats, just above the 85-seat majority. This is down from the 100 seats they held after the 2021 election.
On the right, the populist Progress Party, the Conservatives, and two smaller groups look set to take the remaining 81 seats. The race is very close, and results may depend on how the smallest parties perform.
Voters have been focused on inflation, taxes, and public services. The election could also affect Norway’s oil and gas sector, Europe’s energy supply, and the management of the $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
Prime Minister Stoere, who has led the country since 2021, may benefit from international tensions, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Analysts say his experience as a former foreign minister makes him appear steady and reliable.
At least nine parties are expected to win seats, but only the leaders of Labour, Progress, and the Conservatives are in contention for prime minister. Stoere may need support from the Communist Party and the Greens in a diverse “tutti frutti” coalition. These parties could push for stricter oil and gas limits, higher taxes on wealthy citizens, and more spending from Norway’s wealth fund.
Labour is polling at 27%, making it the largest party. The Progress Party is at 21%, ahead of the Conservatives at 14%. Disagreements between right-wing leaders Erna Solberg and Sylvi Listhaug over the prime ministership have left some voters uncertain about a right-wing government.
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