EXPLAINER - Trump’s 90-day tariff pause. What is happening?

You’ve probably seen the headlines: sweeping tariffs, surprise pauses, and a 90-day ticking clock that could reshape global trade. But what exactly is Trump’s 90-day pause — and why does it matter for the world economy? Let’s break it down

What is the 90-day pause?

On 2 April, former U.S. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day”, announcing new reciprocal tariffs on almost all U.S. imports. The policy shocked global markets. But within a week, a partial 90-day pause was introduced to ease the fallout.

The pause, announced on 9 April, temporarily suspended the steepest tariff hikes for 59 trading partners, including the EU, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka, until 9 July. However, a universal 10% baseline tariff remained in place on nearly all imports, including those from allies such as Australia and the UK.

“The pause offers a temporary reprieve, but it doesn’t undo the structural shift in U.S. trade policy,”
— Clark Packard, trade fellow at the Cato Institute

So, what stayed and what changed?

• The 10% baseline tariff remains in force on nearly all U.S. imports.
• The pause temporarily removed steeper country-specific tariffs, such as:
• 46% on Vietnam
• 44% on Sri Lanka
• 20% on the EU

China, however, saw no relief. Its tariffs jumped from 104% to 125%, plus 20% more for fentanyl-related goods.

“This is a full-scale break from the post-WWII free trade order — and the pause only slows the reckoning,”
— Lori Wallach, global trade expert

What about the global impact?

Trump’s tariff reset could trigger a second wave of inflation, disrupt supply chains, and raise consumer prices, especially if negotiations fail and full tariffs kick in after 9 July.

“The threat of tariffs, and the uncertainty around them, causes capital to sit on the sidelines,”
— Clark Packard

Vietnam, for instance, exports to the U.S. make up about 30% of its GDP. A 46% tariff could devastate its economy.

The UK, which exports $9bn in cars to the U.S., now faces a 25% tariff on those vehicles.

The EU could see a 50% tariff if it doesn’t strike a deal, prompting fears of a tit-for-tat trade war.

“If this happens, the EU will likely feel compelled to respond in kind — potentially sparking a full trade war,”
— Gavekal Research, investment adviser

What’s the legal picture?

The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in May that many of Trump’s tariffs were illegal. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them, but a final ruling is pending.

“There’s real legal risk that the foundation of this trade policy could collapse in court,”
— David Murphy, customs and trade attorney

What could happen next?

Trade analysts expect three possible outcomes by the July deadline:

1. Full deals are reached (like with Vietnam or the UK) — removing or lowering tariffs.

2. No deal, but baseline 10% tariffs remain — continuing uncertainty.

3. No deal and no goodwill — full tariffs (up to 50%) kick in.

“Some countries will bend. Others will fight back. Either way, we’re entering a new chapter in global trade,”
— Patrick Childress, international trade lawyer

Final thoughts

Trump’s 90-day pause wasn’t just a delay, it was a warning. While some nations may strike bilateral deals, others face a steep cliff edge. As the global trading order reshapes, unpredictability may be the only constant.

“Tariffs are back — and this time, they’re not going away quietly,”
— Bloomberg Economics

Tags

News Politics Trump