The global oil market may be tighter than headline supply-demand figures suggest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday, citing rising refinery activity and seasonal summer demand as key drivers of short-term market pressure.
In its latest monthly report, the IEA raised its 2024 global supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 300,000 bpd from earlier estimates. However, demand is expected to rise by only 700,000 bpd — the slowest pace since 2009, excluding the pandemic-hit 2020 — implying a significant surplus on paper.
Yet the agency warned that rising refinery processing, especially to meet travel and power needs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, is absorbing much of the additional supply.
“Prompt time spreads are in steep backwardation and refinery margins remain healthy despite implied stock builds,” the report noted.
The IEA said the OPEC+ decision to accelerate the unwinding of production cuts had little impact on markets, with oil prices rising nearly 2% after the announcement, suggesting tight underlying fundamentals. Brent crude was trading near $69 a barrel on Friday.
Demand is also being bolstered by increased crude burning for power generation, expected to double to 900,000 bpd between May and August. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise 3.7 million bpd in the same period.
The IEA added that while it's too early to assess the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global oil demand, early signs of weakening consumption have emerged in countries most exposed to trade tensions, such as China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and the United States.
Looking ahead to 2025, the agency projects demand growth of 720,000 bpd — slightly lower than previous estimates — against supply growth of 1.3 million bpd, continuing the trend of market surplus.
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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was warned about the "reputational risks" of appointing Peter Mandelson as U.S. Ambassador due to his friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, files released on Wednesday (11 March) show.
The 32 countries belonging to the Internatioanl Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil on Wednesday (11 March), in efforts aimed at bringing down the price of crude oil, which has soared since fighting between Iran, Israel and the U.S. started at the end of February.
The U.S. should shut down its military bases in the Middle East, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said on Thursday (12 March). His words were read out by a broadcaster on state Iranian television.
A towering lava fountain from Kilauea shot about 400 metres into the air late on Tuesday (11 March) on Hawaii Island, prompting temporary closures at Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and part of a key highway as volcanic ash and debris fell over nearby areas.
More than 68,000 children in eastern Afghanistan have been displaced after clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces intensified along the border, according to a new report by Save the Children.
Georgia has cancelled international tenders for the construction of major road sections that form part of a regional highway linking the country with the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Freight transport on the China–Europe Railway Express grew strongly in the first two months of 2026, highlighting the growing importance of rail links between Asia and Europe. The network moved about 352,000 shipping containers between January and February, a 25% increase from a year earlier.
At least 64 people have been killed in southern Ethiopia following recent landslides and floods, the regional government’s communications office said on Thursday (12 March), citing local police
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 12th of March, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Norwegian police apprehended three brothers suspected of carrying out Sunday's (8 March) bombing at the U.S. embassy in Oslo, in an attack investigators have branded an act of terrorism.
Oil prices continue to fluctuate as a result of the conflict in the Middle East with Iran and the insecurity of ships sailing through the key Strait of Hormuz route. Iran has said it will target any ship linked to the U.S., Israel or their allies.
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