The global oil market may be tighter than headline supply-demand figures suggest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday, citing rising refinery activity and seasonal summer demand as key drivers of short-term market pressure.
In its latest monthly report, the IEA raised its 2024 global supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 300,000 bpd from earlier estimates. However, demand is expected to rise by only 700,000 bpd — the slowest pace since 2009, excluding the pandemic-hit 2020 — implying a significant surplus on paper.
Yet the agency warned that rising refinery processing, especially to meet travel and power needs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, is absorbing much of the additional supply.
“Prompt time spreads are in steep backwardation and refinery margins remain healthy despite implied stock builds,” the report noted.
The IEA said the OPEC+ decision to accelerate the unwinding of production cuts had little impact on markets, with oil prices rising nearly 2% after the announcement, suggesting tight underlying fundamentals. Brent crude was trading near $69 a barrel on Friday.
Demand is also being bolstered by increased crude burning for power generation, expected to double to 900,000 bpd between May and August. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise 3.7 million bpd in the same period.
The IEA added that while it's too early to assess the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global oil demand, early signs of weakening consumption have emerged in countries most exposed to trade tensions, such as China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and the United States.
Looking ahead to 2025, the agency projects demand growth of 720,000 bpd — slightly lower than previous estimates — against supply growth of 1.3 million bpd, continuing the trend of market surplus.
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The 12th meeting of the State Commission on the delimitation of the Azerbaijan–Armenia border, along with the corresponding Armenian commission on border delimitation and security, took place on 28 November in Gabala, Azerbaijan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced major changes across the country’s political and security institutions, as Kyiv prepares for fresh discussions with the United States aimed at securing what he called a “dignified peace.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has submitted his resignation amid a corruption scandal.
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Hong Kong fire authorities said they expected to wrap up search and rescue operations on Friday after the city's worst fire in nearly 80 years tore through a massive apartment complex, killing at least 128 people, injuring 79 and leaving around 200 still missing.
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Thousands of Bulgarians took to the streets of Sofia on Wednesday to protest against the government’s draft budget for 2026, the first to be prepared in euros ahead of the country’s planned eurozone entry on 1 January 2026.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in the Latin American region on Thursday, amid a military buildup by President Donald Trump’s administration that has heightened tensions with Venezuela.
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Türkiye and Germany are preparing to deepen bilateral cooperation across political, economic, and security fields, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Friday during an official visit to Berlin.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced major changes across the country’s political and security institutions, as Kyiv prepares for fresh discussions with the United States aimed at securing what he called a “dignified peace.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday that his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has submitted his resignation amid a corruption scandal.
Pope Leo condemned violence in the name of religion on Friday at a landmark event with Christian leaders from across the Middle East, urging them to overcome centuries of heated divisions.
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