The global oil market may be tighter than headline supply-demand figures suggest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Friday, citing rising refinery activity and seasonal summer demand as key drivers of short-term market pressure.
In its latest monthly report, the IEA raised its 2024 global supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 300,000 bpd from earlier estimates. However, demand is expected to rise by only 700,000 bpd — the slowest pace since 2009, excluding the pandemic-hit 2020 — implying a significant surplus on paper.
Yet the agency warned that rising refinery processing, especially to meet travel and power needs during the Northern Hemisphere summer, is absorbing much of the additional supply.
“Prompt time spreads are in steep backwardation and refinery margins remain healthy despite implied stock builds,” the report noted.
The IEA said the OPEC+ decision to accelerate the unwinding of production cuts had little impact on markets, with oil prices rising nearly 2% after the announcement, suggesting tight underlying fundamentals. Brent crude was trading near $69 a barrel on Friday.
Demand is also being bolstered by increased crude burning for power generation, expected to double to 900,000 bpd between May and August. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise 3.7 million bpd in the same period.
The IEA added that while it's too early to assess the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global oil demand, early signs of weakening consumption have emerged in countries most exposed to trade tensions, such as China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and the United States.
Looking ahead to 2025, the agency projects demand growth of 720,000 bpd — slightly lower than previous estimates — against supply growth of 1.3 million bpd, continuing the trend of market surplus.
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EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has warned that without concrete concessions from Russia, such as limiting its military forces or curbing its defence budget, new conflicts could erupt elsewhere, even if Ukraine receives security guarantees.
The latest round of clashes between Thailand and Cambodia has left 15 Thai soldiers dead and 270 others injured, Thailand’s Ministry of Defence spokesman Surasant Kongsiri said at a press conference on Saturday.
Iranian authorities have seized a foreign tanker carrying more than 6 million litres of smuggled fuel in the Sea of Oman.
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Japan has lifted a tsunami advisory issued after an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 hit the country's northeastern region on Friday (12 December), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. The JMA had earlier put the earthquake's preliminary magnitude at 6.7.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his offer to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Ankara, at his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The talks took place on the sidelines of the international Forum for Peace and Trust in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on Friday (12 December).
The United States issued new sanctions targeting Venezuela on Thursday, imposing curbs on three nephews of President Nicolas Maduro's wife, as well as six crude oil tankers and shipping companies linked to them, as Washington ramps up pressure on Caracas.
The resignation of Bulgaria's government on Thursday (11 December) puts an end to an increasingly unpopular coalition but is likely to usher in a period of prolonged political instability on the eve of the Black Sea nation's entry into the euro zone.
Thailand’s caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said on Saturday that Thai forces would continue military action along the Cambodia border until Bangkok believes there is no longer a threat to Thai territory or civilians.
U.S. stock markets closed lower at the end of the week, as investors continued to rotate out of technology shares, putting pressure on major indices.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has warned that without concrete concessions from Russia, such as limiting its military forces or curbing its defence budget, new conflicts could erupt elsewhere, even if Ukraine receives security guarantees.
Multiple people were shot on Saturday at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, prompting an active shooter alert and a campus lockdown, city officials said.
The latest round of clashes between Thailand and Cambodia has left 15 Thai soldiers dead and 270 others injured, Thailand’s Ministry of Defence spokesman Surasant Kongsiri said at a press conference on Saturday.
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