Rwanda and DR Congo: escalating tensions threaten regional stability

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are once again on the brink of a major conflict as escalating tensions threaten to destabilize Africa’s Great Lakes region.

The resurgence of violence has led to the severing of diplomatic ties, displacement of thousands, and the deaths of at least 13 United Nations peacekeepers, including South African and Malawian soldiers.

Historical Roots of Conflict

The hostility between Rwanda and the DRC is deeply rooted in a complex history of ethnic tensions, political rivalries, and resource competition dating back to the colonial era. Key events, including the Rwandan Revolution (1959–1961), which saw the overthrow of the Tutsi monarchy by the Hutu majority, and the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, which displaced thousands of Hutus into eastern Congo, have fueled animosity between the two nations.

The First and Second Congo Wars (1996–2003), involving multiple regional actors, exacerbated this instability, resulting in millions of deaths and widespread displacement. The wars left a legacy of distrust, which continues to define the relationship between Rwanda and the DRC today.

Recent Developments

The latest flashpoint in the conflict is the resurgence of the M23 rebel group, composed largely of ethnic Tutsis, which has escalated its offensive in eastern Congo. The group seized new territories in 2022 and, in January 2025, launched a major attack on Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, forcing over 100,000 people to flee their homes.

The DRC has accused Rwanda of backing the M23, a claim echoed by the United Nations and Western nations. Rwanda denies these allegations but acknowledges deploying troops in eastern Congo, citing security concerns over the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu militia operating in the region.

In response, the DRC severed diplomatic ties with Rwanda earlier this month, accusing it of “planned and systematic aggression.” The deteriorating situation has prompted an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, with calls for sanctions against Rwanda and a withdrawal of all foreign forces from the DRC.

Humanitarian Crisis

The conflict has had a devastating impact on civilians in eastern Congo. Nearly 7 million people are internally displaced, and thousands more have fled to neighboring countries. Civilians face food insecurity, limited access to healthcare, and heightened risks of violence. Reports of unlawful killings, abductions, sexual violence, and human rights abuses by both armed groups and the Congolese army are widespread.

The use of explosive weapons in populated areas has further deepened the crisis, depriving millions of essential services, including clean water, sanitation, healthcare, and education.

International Mediation Efforts

International actors, including the African Union, Angola, and the East African Community, have been working to mediate the conflict. The Luanda and Nairobi processes aimed at fostering dialogue and addressing armed group activity have yielded limited progress. A ceasefire agreement was reached in July 2024 under the Luanda Process, but fighting resumed shortly afterward.

The UN peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) continues to operate in the region, despite mounting challenges, including attacks on peacekeepers and reports of GPS jamming threatening their safety.

Underlying Drivers of the Conflict

The enduring tensions between Rwanda and the DRC are driven by multiple factors:

• Ethnic Divisions: Armed groups on both sides exploit ethnic grievances, perpetuating violence.

• Resource Competition: Eastern Congo’s mineral wealth, including coltan and cobalt, fuels the conflict, with armed groups profiting from illegal resource extraction.

• Political Instability: Weak governance in the DRC creates fertile ground for armed group activity and external interference.

• Historical Mistrust: Decades of animosity and unresolved grievances hinder diplomatic efforts.

The Path Forward

The escalating conflict underscores the need for a comprehensive and sustained approach to achieve peace. Solutions must address the root causes of the conflict, including ethnic divisions, competition for resources, and governance challenges. Dialogue between the DRC and Rwanda, alongside accountability for human rights abuses, is critical to rebuilding trust.

The international community must also step up efforts to mediate, provide humanitarian assistance, and impose consequences on actors fueling the violence. Addressing the exploitation of natural resources, which drives much of the conflict, is essential for a long-term resolution.

As the humanitarian crisis deepens and the risk of a wider regional conflict grows, the urgency for decisive and collaborative action cannot be overstated. Peace and stability in the Great Lakes region depend on the willingness of all parties to prioritize dialogue, reconciliation, and sustainable solutions over divisive rhetoric and short-term interests.

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