Three Armenian citizens have been charged following an alleged attempt to attack Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at St Anna Cathedral in Yerevan on 29 March. Analysts say the incident reflects rising tensions between the government and the Church ahead of upcoming elections.

Authorities said 18-year-olds David and Mikael Minasyan, along with public figure Gevorg Gevorgyan, were detained.

The confrontation reportedly unfolded as Pashinyan was leaving the church, when one attendee argued with a security guard and another allegedly attempted to strike the prime minister.

Speaking to AnewZ, political analyst Eldar Hamzali said the incident should be viewed in the context of growing tensions between the Armenian government and the Church, particularly amid Pashinyan’s recent nationwide outreach campaign.

“Well, first of all, we have to look at where this incident took place… So we see that there is a growing tension between the Church and the government… And I think it's an incident that's very expected since the Church-Pashinyan relations were tense.”

He noted that while there has been speculation over whether the act was provoked, it appears to be a natural outcome of strained relations rather than a co-ordinated political move.

Electoral implications

With elections approaching, concerns over possible instability have emerged. However, Hamzali dismissed the likelihood of escalation or organised unrest.

“I think this incident clearly demonstrates that it is an isolated incident. It is not part of an organised or planned series of events.”

He added that opposition groups are focused on the electoral process rather than street protests.

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Pashinyan’s warning and regional pressure

Commenting on Pashinyan’s warning that a loss could lead to "war in September", the analyst described it as political messaging aimed at distinguishing his government from the opposition.

“I believe it's a political pressure… we are the guarantor of the peace and if we lose then the war of party will come to power.”

He also suggested the statement places indirect pressure on Azerbaijan, despite Baku maintaining that Armenia’s elections are an internal matter.

On regional dynamics, Hamzali said most neighbouring countries have little interest in destabilising Armenia, pointing instead to Russia as the key external actor potentially favouring political change.

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