Azerbaijan-Armenia relations: A year of shifting dynamics

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, long defined by conflict and rivalry, underwent a dramatic transformation in 2025.

From the start of the year, which was marked by fears of escalation and potential conflict, to the end of the year, when both sides were discussing the importation of Azerbaijani petrol to Armenia, the changes in bilateral relations are undeniable.

Areg Kochinyan president of Armenian Council and an expert in regional diplomacy, shared his perspective on this evolving relationship and the shift from a history of hostility to a more diplomatic and cooperative process.

Reflecting on the developments since the Abu Dhabi meeting, he noted that significant progress has been made, not just in the substance of the relationship but in the way both governments interact.

He observed that the old rivalry between the two nations had evolved into a more diplomatic and intergovernmental interaction. The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia had been rooted in a deeply entrenched conflict, but  highlighted that the dynamics have changed dramatically.

Kochinyan emphasised that the dialogue is no longer defined by the "savage conflict" of the past three decades. Instead, the two countries are now engaged in a more formal and respectful diplomatic process.

Despite the ongoing disagreements and challenges, the interactions between officials have become much more efficient and constructive.

Kochinyan pointed out that, at the Abu Dhabi meeting, the two sides had come to an agreement on almost everything except one key issue: communication and infrastructure.

The question of opening communication channels and infrastructure between Azerbaijan and Armenia remained unresolved at that time. However, he noted that this issue was later addressed in Washington, further advancing the diplomatic process.

The shift in tone and substance is significant. Kochinyan explained that discussions between the two nations have progressed to a point where, despite ongoing disagreements, the conversations are now characterised by mutual respect.

There is a sense of collaboration and a shared understanding that the path forward requires constructive dialogue. This change marks a stark contrast to the atmosphere of mistrust and tension that characterised relations in the past.

One of the most notable changes in 2025 has been the development of economic ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

• Azerbaijan's premium gasoline to be sold in Armenia at lower price
• Armenia’s prime minister welcomes Azerbaijan move to unblock cargo transit

Kochinyan highlighted the landmark agreement allowing Azerbaijani petrol to be imported into Armenia as a dramatic shift in relations.

This development, which seemed unimaginable a year ago, represents a tangible step towards normalising ties between the two nations.

At the beginning of the year, fears of escalation and continued conflict were prevalent, and many analysts believed that a resumption of hostilities was as likely as the conflict's resolution.

However, by the end of the year, the conversation had shifted to economic cooperation, with Azerbaijan playing an active role in supplying energy resources to Armenia.

Despite these significant strides, Kochinyan was careful to note that the path to full reconciliation and cooperation is still a long one.

There are unresolved issues, particularly regarding the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the broader security concerns of both nations.

However, the shift in tone, from a year of potential escalation to one of growing diplomatic and economic cooperation, is an encouraging sign.

Both Azerbaijan and Armenia still have many challenges to overcome, but the progress made in 2025 demonstrates the potential for a more stable and peaceful future.

The changes in the relationship between these two countries suggest that dialogue, respect, and mutual understanding can ultimately replace decades of conflict.

The year 2025 has been a turning point in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. From the potential for escalation to the practical realities of economic exchange, the year has seen dramatic progress.

As both sides continue to address their disagreements, the focus is shifting from conflict to cooperation, with diplomacy playing a key role in shaping the future of the region.

While there are still challenges to overcome, the diplomatic advancements in 2025 offer hope for a more peaceful and prosperous future for both nations.

• First Azerbaijani fuel shipment reaches Armenia by rail, signalling new ties
• Azerbaijan and Armenia take historic step toward economic cooperation

Copied