View: Israel signals no phase two without final hostage release

Israel’s position that phase two of the Gaza ceasefire cannot begin without the final hostage being returned is intended to pressure Hamas rather than halt the U.S. plan, analyst Nuno Wahnon Martins tells AnewZ.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Miami at the end of the month as Washington pushes to advance its Gaza ceasefire roadmap. The shift to phase two remains tied to Israel’s demand for the last hostage’s remains, but Netanyahu has already indicated the transition is expected “very shortly”.

Speaking to AnewZ from Brussels, political analyst Nuno Wahnon Martins said the condition “does not freeze the plan”. Instead, he described it as a tactical move to increase pressure on Hamas, which he argues faces the toughest stage of the process as the second phase challenges both its military capability and its political control in Gaza.

Martins said both Israel and Hamas recognise that phase two “will take place sooner or later”, with current talks centred on who will manage parts of Gaza after Hamas is removed from day-to-day governance. He referenced Netanyahu’s quiet consultations with former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair on possible administrative roles for a reformed Palestinian Authority.

According to Martins, Trump is pushing Netanyahu on three fronts: coordination with Egypt on Gaza and regional gas issues, a recalibrated approach to Syria, and follow-up discussions with a U.S. envoy after recent disagreements. Qatar and Egypt, he added, remain crucial mediators capable of advancing Hamas’s consent to the next stage.

While reports of isolated Israeli strikes, including in Jabalia, illustrate the fragility on the ground, Martins said he does not expect a return to large-scale fighting. With Washington committed to its 20-point Gaza plan, he argued that neither side wants to break the current ceasefire framework.

Humanitarian access remains the unresolved challenge. Martins noted ongoing disagreements between Israel and UN agencies, limited aid flows and worsening winter conditions, warning that reconstruction and safe corridors will depend on an agreed neutral mechanism.

For now, he believes U.S. leverage over Israel and mediator influence on Hamas will keep the process moving. Israel’s hostage condition, he said, is a negotiating instrument rather than a barrier, with the decisive questions ahead centred on security, disarmament and the governance of post-conflict Gaza.

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