More than 11 million Afghans have been displaced or have returned to the country between 2021 and 2025, as drought, floods and mass returns from neighbouring states deepen an already fragile humanitarian crisis, according to a new report from the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

“Environmental hazards continued to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in 2025,” the IOM said, noting that 79% of displacements in early 2025 were linked to climate- and disaster-related events.

Drought remains the dominant driver of internal displacement. Among those displaced within Afghanistan in 2025, 42% fled because of drought, while floods and other disasters accounted for a further 10%. In Nimroz province, displaced people now make up 15% of the population.

At the same time, returns from neighbouring countries have surged. In 2025 alone, 2.7 million Afghans returned from abroad - nearly half of the total number of returnees recorded since 2021. The IOM attributed the increase to escalating deportations and insecurity in the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan.

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According to the agency’s flow monitoring data, 43% of those entering from Iran cited deportation as the reason for their return, while 47% of those arriving from Pakistan said they “felt unsafe in the host country”.

The strain is particularly visible in western Afghanistan. Herat province now hosts the country’s largest mobile population, with more than one million people either displaced or returned.

Climate impacts are also driving Afghans to leave. Between April and December 2025, 675,496 people departed because of climate-related livelihood losses, with 79% heading to Iran.

As one community member in Helmand told the IOM: “Before, farmers used river water, but now everyone drills their own wells… This has lowered the groundwater level and made the water problem worse every day.”

With drought affecting 89% of assessed communities, mobility in Afghanistan is no longer episodic - it has become structural.

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