Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping geopolitical calculations and global shipping, with analysts warning of prolonged disruption even if a ceasefire is reached. Experts say the crisis is driven as much by strategic messaging as by economic risks.

Speaking on AnewZ, political analyst Nuno Wahnon Martins described the current Iran–U.S. standoff as a strategic contest shaped more by messaging and negotiation tactics than by clear military dominance.

“We are facing a war of narratives,” he said, pointing to both Washington and Tehran using pressure to strengthen their positions.

Martins argued that Iran’s perceived leverage, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, is limited. “The only real ‘upper hand’ Iran has is on the ground,” he noted, adding that geographic factors provide defensive strength but little beyond that.

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He also stressed that U.S. threats tied to ceasefire deadlines should be taken seriously, though they remain part of a broader bargaining strategy.

Martins linked the crisis to wider global competition, saying it is “also about the broader U.S.–China competition,” with Washington seeking to curb Beijing’s influence in the region.

According to the analyst, the likely outcome will be “not a full military escalation, but also not a comprehensive agreement”, suggesting a prolonged middle ground.

Shipping risks and long-term market impact

Separately, senior lead analyst at maritime data firm Kpler, Alexis Ellender, warned that the crisis is already altering trade patterns and could have lasting consequences for global shipping.

“They’ve seen the vulnerability of trading via the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to Gulf countries, adding they will likely “look to diversify their trade routes”, including pipelines and alternative ports.

Ellender emphasised that disruption will persist even if hostilities ease. “We don’t expect… a return to normal trading condition any time in the near term,” he said, noting that the shipping industry is “very risk-averse.”

The analyst outlined a gradual recovery scenario, explaining that even with a formal ceasefire, shipping flows could take months to normalise.

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Initial traffic may reach only “about 25% of normal flows,” followed by a cautious increase to “30 to 50% of normal traffic” before stabilising.

However, he warned that a full return to pre-crisis conditions is unlikely. “There will be a risk premium for the Middle East Gulf, and I expect that will persist for the long term… probably years,” Ellender said.

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Middle East Politics Strait of Hormuz Iran Israel War Politics Trump United States