Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping geopolitical calculations and global shipping, with analysts warning of prolonged disruption even if a ceasefire is reached. Experts say the crisis is driven as much by strategic messaging as by economic risks.
Speaking on AnewZ, political analyst Nuno Wahnon Martins described the current Iran–U.S. standoff as a strategic contest shaped more by messaging and negotiation tactics than by clear military dominance.
“We are facing a war of narratives,” he said, pointing to both Washington and Tehran using pressure to strengthen their positions.
Martins argued that Iran’s perceived leverage, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, is limited. “The only real ‘upper hand’ Iran has is on the ground,” he noted, adding that geographic factors provide defensive strength but little beyond that.
He also stressed that U.S. threats tied to ceasefire deadlines should be taken seriously, though they remain part of a broader bargaining strategy.
Martins linked the crisis to wider global competition, saying it is “also about the broader U.S.–China competition,” with Washington seeking to curb Beijing’s influence in the region.
According to the analyst, the likely outcome will be “not a full military escalation, but also not a comprehensive agreement”, suggesting a prolonged middle ground.
Separately, senior lead analyst at maritime data firm Kpler, Alexis Ellender, warned that the crisis is already altering trade patterns and could have lasting consequences for global shipping.
“They’ve seen the vulnerability of trading via the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, referring to Gulf countries, adding they will likely “look to diversify their trade routes”, including pipelines and alternative ports.
Ellender emphasised that disruption will persist even if hostilities ease. “We don’t expect… a return to normal trading condition any time in the near term,” he said, noting that the shipping industry is “very risk-averse.”
The analyst outlined a gradual recovery scenario, explaining that even with a formal ceasefire, shipping flows could take months to normalise.
Initial traffic may reach only “about 25% of normal flows,” followed by a cautious increase to “30 to 50% of normal traffic” before stabilising.
However, he warned that a full return to pre-crisis conditions is unlikely. “There will be a risk premium for the Middle East Gulf, and I expect that will persist for the long term… probably years,” Ellender said.
At least six Palestinians have been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City, according to Palestinian health officials, as efforts by U.S. Pres...
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed, according to the latest data, as uncertainty over the waterway’s reopening kept most s...
Georgia’s newly elected Catholicos-Patriarch Shio III is set to visit Istanbul, with the upcoming trip discussed during a meeting with M...
U.S. President Donald Trump says Washington is not seeking an extension of its memorandum of understanding with Iran, claiming the U.S. already controls the Strait of Hormuz through its naval blockade.
Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. fulfils the terms of an interim deal, including lifting the maritime blockade and sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets.
Ukraine has targeted at least 20 Wildberries warehouses across Russia since 18 July, disrupting a major logistics network. Kyiv says the strikes aim to disrupt alleged military-linked supplies, while the attacks have caused billions of dollars in losses and wider economic pressure.
South Korea's presidential Blue House said on Monday it was reviewing U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on scaling back joint military drills. It added that it hoped a favourable relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could lead to meaningful talks.
Russia said its air defences downed 180 drones over the Moscow region overnight, with 620 drones reportedly targeting the area, according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed, according to the latest data, as uncertainty over the waterway’s reopening kept most shipowners away. Six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from nine the day before and below the 10-day daily average of 11.
Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. fulfils the terms of an interim deal, including lifting the maritime blockade and sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets.
U.S. President Donald Trump says Washington is not seeking an extension of its memorandum of understanding with Iran, claiming the U.S. already controls the Strait of Hormuz through its naval blockade.
At least 11 people were killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon on Saturday, among the deadliest since a June ceasefire. Meanwhile, Qatar denied holding Iranian pilots. It said it had found the remains of one pilot after an airspace violation and had contacted Iran to coordinate a handover.
U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to make the Strait of Hormuz part of U.S. territory have been mocked by Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, who said the sea passage "cannot be seized by tweet."
You can download the AnewZ application from Play Store and the App Store.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Leave the first comment