The world is likely to experience record-breaking temperatures through 2029, with the Arctic expected to warm at more than three times the global average, the UN weather agency warned in a new report.

The next five years are set to bring more record heat, with Arctic regions warming at over three times the global rate, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released Wednesday.

The agency estimates there’s an 80% chance that at least one year between now and 2029 will break existing global temperature records. It also warns there's a strong likelihood that average global warming will temporarily exceed the key 1.5°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Last year already marked a dangerous milestone as it became the hottest on record and the first to breach the Paris accord’s temperature limit. Between 2025 and 2029, the global near-surface temperature is forecast to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850–1900).

“Every additional fraction of a degree brings more damage—more intense heatwaves, stronger storms, longer droughts, accelerated ice melt, and rising sea levels,” the WMO said in a statement.

The Arctic is expected to see the most severe impact, with winter temperatures over the next five years forecast to be about 2.4°C above the most recent 30-year average, accelerating the melting of sea ice and glaciers in both the Arctic and northwest Pacific regions.

While global temperatures are expected to hover near record highs, regional shifts in precipitation are also predicted. Wetter-than-usual conditions are likely in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia from May through September over the next five years. Meanwhile, the Amazon basin is forecast to face drier-than-average conditions.

The WMO’s warning comes amid growing concern from scientists and climate advocates that the world is drifting further from its environmental commitments—while the consequences of inaction become more visible each year.

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