2023 defied climate expectations. It wasn’t just hotter than predicted — it was strangely hot. Now, scientists are piecing together what caused this anomaly, raising fresh concerns about Earth’s climate systems.
Gavin Schmidt, NASA’s top climate modeller at the Goddard Institute for Space Science, admitted to feeling “humbled” by 2023’s extraordinary temperatures. Writing in Nature earlier this year, Schmidt noted that the year was warmer than models anticipated. The deviation, unexplained at first, sparked worries that climate change is entering uncharted territory.
At December’s American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting, the world's largest Earth science conference, experts revisited the mystery. Like detectives solving a case, scientists meticulously ruled out some “suspects” while identifying others.
Key Suspects Behind the Heat Surge
El Niño
The natural El Niño event, which warms the tropical Pacific, began in 2023, contributing to global temperatures. Yet the warming exceeded even El Niño’s usual influence, raising eyebrows.
Cleaner Air from Shipping
New rules to reduce sulphur in ship fuel have lowered pollution levels. However, cleaner air allows more sunlight to reach the ocean surface, which adds to global warming.
Volcano and Solar Activity
The Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022 injected water vapour into the atmosphere but also sulphates, which slightly cooled the Earth. Meanwhile, the Sun reached its peak activity cycle, contributing minimal extra heat.
Cloud Cover Changes
Research by Germany’s Alfred Wegener Institute found Earth reflected less sunlight in 2023 — its dimmest year yet. Reduced cloud cover, particularly over northern mid-latitudes, amplified warming. Cleaner air may have played a role, alongside long-term climate shifts that are altering cloud patterns.
The Bigger Picture
Global warming is accelerating. Some scientists argue that the drop in sulphur emissions is now speeding up heating, while changing cloud dynamics add to the uncertainty.
What’s Next
GISS modellers are now combining the latest data on sulphur emissions, cloud dynamics, and sunlight reflectivity into updated climate simulations. Schmidt expects these runs to clarify the contributions of various factors and potentially reshape projections for Earth’s future.
The findings are clear: warming is unlikely to slow any time soon.
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Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 21st of July, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Start your day informed with AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top news stories for the 22nd of July, covering the latest developments you need to know.
President Donald Trump said the United States will target Iran’s heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain site “pretty soon” as he meets with Lebanese president Michel Aoun. Meanwhile, U.S. forces carried out a 10th consecutive night of strikes on Iran while Tehran continues to target Gulf countries.
Overnight U.S. strikes caused blackouts in southwestern Iran and hit the northwestern city of Tabriz for the first time. Separately, a U.S. soldier died in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian drone.
The United States has bombed Iran for an 11th consecutive night as the Pentagon says the war’s cost reach $37.5 billion. President Donald Trump threatens a heavy strike on the suspected Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site. Tehran warns that any attack could trigger a wider regional escalation.
Spanish military firefighters worked through the night into Sunday to contain the La Mierla wildfire, which continued to spread across Guadalajara province in central Spain.
At least 10 people were killed and several others reported missing after flash floods struck Rajouri city in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on Sunday, according to local media.
A major wildfire in Spain's Aragon region has burned more than 15,000 hectares, forcing evacuations and prompting authorities to declare a level two emergency.
Hungary is channelling around two million cubic metres of water into the park's largest marshland, Fekete-rét (Black Meadow), through the Nyugati irrigation canal to replenish wetlands affected by prolonged dry conditions.
Toronto experienced the worst air quality of any major city in the world on Wednesday as thick smoke from wildfires burning across north-western Ontario blanketed the city.
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