Cocoa, Coffee, and Wheat: EU Food Imports at Risk from Climate and Biodiversity Crises

A new report warns that six of Europe's staple food imports—cocoa, coffee, wheat, maize, rice, and soy—face rising threats from climate change and biodiversity loss, putting the continent's food security and economy at risk.

As climate change accelerates and biodiversity continues to decline, Europe’s food supply chains are under growing pressure. A report commissioned by the European Climate Foundation and conducted by UK consultancy Foresight Transitions reveals that more than half of the EU’s imports of six key food commodities come from countries highly vulnerable to climate impacts and with limited capacity to adapt.

The most affected are cocoa, maize, and wheat. For these three, two-thirds of imports come from regions where biodiversity is no longer intact. “These aren’t just abstract threats,” said lead author Camilla Hyslop. “They’re already playing out through rising prices, supply disruptions, and job losses.”

Chocolate under the greatest threat
The EU’s chocolate industry, valued at around €44 billion, is particularly exposed. Around 97% of its cocoa is imported from countries with low resilience to climate shocks, such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria—nations also grappling with serious biodiversity degradation.

Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and deforestation in West Africa have pushed cocoa prices higher, contributing to a 41% increase in EU cocoa import costs over the past year. Combined with the rising price of sugar, chocolate producers are facing what experts call an “environmental double whammy.”

The result: chocolate prices have soared 43% in just three years, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

Climate + biodiversity = a dangerous feedback loop
What makes the crisis more acute is the interplay between climate and biodiversity. “Declining biodiversity undermines the resilience of farms and ecosystems,” Hyslop explained, “making them more vulnerable to pests, disease, and weather extremes.”

Deforestation and monocropping—common practices in commodity farming—worsen the situation by degrading soil and altering microclimates, ultimately diminishing crop yields.

EU climate risks make imports indispensable
While some argue the EU should reshore food production, the report’s co-author, Dr. Mark Workman, calls this insufficient. “Europe can’t grow cocoa or coffee in meaningful quantities. And it faces its own climate and biodiversity threats,” he said.

Indeed, 2024 alone saw floods in the UK and France reducing wheat output and heatwaves hitting maize crops in Eastern Europe—events that highlight the EU’s continued dependence on global supply chains.

A call for international climate investment
The report stresses that climate finance is not charity—it’s in the EU’s own interest. “We must invest in the resilience of our trading partners and infrastructure,” Workman emphasized. “Ports, supply chains, and the farmers themselves are all under pressure.”

Among the report’s recommendations are targeted support for smallholder farmers, especially in the cocoa sector, and stronger climate mitigation policies to protect supply chains and ecosystems alike.

As aid budgets are increasingly weighed against defense spending, the report offers a clear message: climate security and food security are inseparable—and both are essential to Europe's future.

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