Oscar 2025 Nominations - here are the predictions for the major categories

From a visionary architect escaping post-war Europe to a Brooklyn stripper who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, from a couple of Ozian witches to dozens of wannabe Popes, all the way to the genre-bender (musical, crime-thriller, LGBTQA+ story) Spanish-language tale of a notorious cartel boss’ quest to retire and transition into living as a woman, this Oscar season gives us everything…but a frontrunner.

Two musicals are poised to top the number of Oscar nominations: Spanish-language French Oscar entry “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix), and Universal Pictures’ blockbuster screen adaptation of Broadway smash hit musical “Wicked” – both expected to garner ten nominations. They are followed by papal thriller “Conclave” (Focus Features) and post-World War II drama about an emigrant architect ( Best Actor frontrunner Adrien Brody) produced for under $10 million, with nine nods. All display the scale, scope, and ambition of a potential Oscar winner.

“Wicked” boasts more American support – vis-à-vis the SAG Ensemble nomination – whereas “Emilia Perez”, winner of five European Film Awards, including best film, and four Golden Globes including Best Comedy/Musical, and scored 11 BAFTA nominations. “Conclave” is also up for Best SAG Ensemble and leads the BAFTA nominations with 12. BAFTAS are usually quite predictive of the OSCARS, and that’s because over 10.000 Academy voters (20% of the Academy) have become more international, and BAFTA voters represent such overseas bloc. Cannes prize-winner and crowdpleaser “Anora” (Neon), at first a comedy about a sex worker in a modern-day version of “Pretty Woman” which in truth is an essay on the treatment of the underclass as human beings, caps the top 5.

Next in line are: writer/director/star Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures), a the tragedy-tourism tale about mismatched cousins on tour in Poland to honour their grandmother; James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight), starring Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan during the most explosive creative phase of his early 60s career; RaMell Ross’ visually stunning, critics’  darling  “Nickel Boys” (MGM/Orion/Amazon); prison theater drama “Sing Sing” (A24); 1972 Olympics newsroom thriller “September 5”, and Coralie Fargeat’s feminist -body-gory-horror allegory “The Substance” (Mubi).

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Picture:

“Emilia Pérez″ (Netflix)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Anora” (Neon)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
“Wicked” (Universal)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight)
“Nickel Boys” (Orion/MGM/Amazon)

Best Director

The DGA nominees used to be a dependable bellwether for this category, but in recent years major contenders have often been bypassed, mostly in favor of international directors: Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall” over Greta Gerwig for “Barbie”, Ruben Östlund for “Triangle of Sadness” over James Cameron for “Avatar: The Way of Water”, Ryusuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car” over Denis Villeneuve for “Dune”, Thomas Vinterberg for “Another Round” over Aaron Sorkin for “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, Pawel Pawlikowski for “Cold War” over everyone else back in 2019.  

This year, this trend is in line with two of the most obvious candidates: France’s Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Pérez”, and Germany’s Edward Berger for “Conclave”. Sean Baker (“Anora”) and Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) are the other two locks for nods, and these four are BAFTA/Globe -nominees, with Corbet taking the Best Director Golden Globe earlier this month.

For the fifth slot, among Hollywood directors, Jon M. Chu for “Wicked” and DGA-nominee James Mangold for “A Complete Unknown” are in contention. However, it seems highly characteristic of the Directors Branch to go instead for Coralie Fargeat, the French auteur behind “The Substance”, or exiled Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”, or to give Indian director Payal Kapadia the love her own country didn’t ( by not choosing her debut film to represent India for International Feature ) for “All We Imagine as Light”.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Sean Baker, "Anora"
Edward Berger, "Conclave"
Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"

Best Actress

This is the most fiercely competitive of all the acting categories. The top tier is solidified with Karla Sofía Gascón for “Emilia Pérez” ( which will make her the first transgender actress to be nominated for an Academy Award ) and Mikey Madison for “Anora” showing sustaining power since both broke out at Cannes, plus Cynthia Erivo for singing, acting and carrying the fall’s biggest blockbuster “Wicked”. And of course Demi Moore’s career resurgence off a memorable role in "The Substance" - one of the best stories of this awards cycle: after winning a Golden Globe, she now appears the presumptive frontrunner.

Moore, Madison and Gascon would be first-time Oscar nominees, while Erivo would nab her third career Oscar nod – the second for Leading Actress.

Three women appear to be in contention for the final spot. It is hard to imagine anyone watching Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s fearsome turn in Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” and not voting for her. Her strongest competition is Golden Globe Winner Fernanda Torres for Brazil’s International Feature entry “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics )  who got a late boost with a surprise Golden Globe win, Angelina Jolie’s Maria Callas in Pablo Larrain’s “Maria”, Nicole Kidman for “Babygirl” – and a couple of other potential surprises in Pamela Anderson for “The Last Showgirl” and Kate Winslet for “Lee”.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Demi Moore, "The Substance"

Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, "Hard Truths"
Mikey Madison, "Anora"
 

Best Actor

All are former Oscar nominees: Fiennes is the only one to have been nominated twice, while Brody is the only one who’s won – and ironically, his record as the youngest-ever Best Actor winner could be broken by Chalamet this year.

For that fifth slot, a surprise nomination for Hugh Grant in “Heretic” or a slightly less surprising one for Jesse Eisenberg in “A Real Pain”, but the strongest candidates seem to be Daniel Craig for “Queer” and Sebastian Stan for “The Apprentice” in which he plays Donald Trump, or for his turn in “A Different Man”.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"
Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
Daniel Craig, "Queer"
Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"

Best Supporting Actress

Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Perez”) and Ariana Grande (“Wicked”) are deserving locks in the most wide-open acting race. They both act and sing, and are magnificent in their roles – showing the power of musicals in a category that offers a collection of fascinating performances.

After earning SAG and BAFTA noms for the late-breaking “The Last Showgirl”, Jamie Lee Curtis is closing in on an afterglow Oscar nomination, riding the momentum of her recent “Everything Everywhere All at Once” win.

Isabella Rossellini’s short, and mostly silent, but potent performance in “Conclave” places her in the top four – and like Curtis two years ago, she is cinema royalty who has never been recognized by the Academy before.

Overlooked by SAG, Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) is brilliant alongside Adrien Brody but has the disadvantage of appearing in the second half of the 3h-35m-long film, which most people don’t like as much as the first half.

“A Complete Unknown” is surging at the right time to put Monica Barbaro’s Joan Baez in the conversation. Danielle Deadwyler is a standout in “The Piano Lesson”

International voters love “Emilia Pérez”, which might pull Selena Gomez in alongside Saldaña. And the same can be said for “The Substance” ’s Margaret Qualley riding in on Demi Moore’s coattails.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"

Jamie Lee Curtis, "The Last Showgirl"
Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
Isabella Rosselini, "Conclave"
 

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin is the obvious frontrunner for “A Real Pain”, with Edward Norton for “A Complete Unknown” and Yura Borisov for “Anora” very strong as well. Guy Pearce, though overlooked by SAG Awards voters for “The Brutalist” seems a likelier Oscar nominee than SAG-nominee Jonathan Bailey for “Wicked”.
 

The fifth spot could go to Jeremy Strong for playing Roy Cohn in “The Apprentice” or Clarence Maclin for playing a fictionalized version of himself ( and almost stealing the show from Colman Domingo ) in “Sing Sing” , and of course Denzel Washington seemed to have a firm grasp on a nom for “Gladiator II”.  

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
Yura Borisov, "Anora"
Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"

Best Original Screenplay

Very much like the Director’s branch, as the Oscar field gets increasingly global, the WGA nominations have lost some of their power as a prognosticator. The guild rules out screenplays not written in English, leaving the BAFTAs as the best indicator.

The favorite is Sean Baker’s “Anora”, followed by “The Brutalist”, “A Real Pain”, and “The Substance”, completing the  top tier list in this category. Mike Leigh’s five previous nominations in this category make Hard Truths a possibility, Leigh couldn’t get in at the BAFTAs, which makes WGA-nominee Challengers more likely for a nomination. “September 5” should not be ruled out, and if it shows up in the fifth slot, that’s a sign it’s getting the final Best Picture spot.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Original Screenplay:

Sean Baker, "Anora"
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, "The Brutalist"
Jesse Eisenberg, "A Real Pain"
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
Justin Kuritzkes, "Challengers"

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Best Picture heavyweights are evenly split between the screenplay categories this year, which should make for some exciting races. Golden-Globe winner Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and Emilia Pérez fill the top of this category, and two other Best Picture contenders round it out: Sing Sing and Nickel Boys.

There’s a chance that “Wicked” is strong enough to get in too - in which case it probably bumps whichever of “Sing Sing” or “Nickel Boys” didn’t make it into Picture.

Here are the predicted nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay:

Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross, "Nickel Boys"
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, "Sing Sing"
Jay Cocks and James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"
Peter Straughan, "Conclave"

The 2025 Oscars telecast will be hosted by Conan O’Brian and airs Sunday, March 2, 7 pm ET / 4 pm PT.

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