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Goldman Sachs economists have warned that any significant disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude prices over $100 per barrel, potentially causing a sharp rise in transport costs, inflation, and slowing global growth.
Despite an early spike in oil prices that quickly subsided, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that a disruption in supplies from the Middle East, especially through the vital Strait of Hormuz, would cause energy prices to soar.
The investment bank estimates that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were cut by half for a month and then remained 10% lower for another 11 months, Brent crude could spike briefly to as high as $110 per barrel. This level would mark the highest price since August 2022 and nearly a third higher than the current price of around $77 per barrel.
If Iranian oil supply alone fell by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent prices would peak at about $90 per barrel, according to analysts including Daan Struyven.
However, Goldman Sachs’ baseline scenario assumes that physical disruptions to Iran’s supply and the broader regional oil and gas production and shipping are avoided. Under this assumption, Brent crude is forecast to fall to around $60 per barrel by the end of the year.
The warning comes amid heightened tensions in the region after Iran’s parliament voted to shut down the Hormuz shipping channel, a crucial artery carrying about 20% of global oil shipments, in retaliation against U.S. military actions.
Goldman analysts argue that there are strong economic incentives for key players - including the U.S. and China - to prevent a sustained and large-scale disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the critical importance of this route to global energy security.
Video from the USGS (United States Geological Survey) showed on Friday (19 September) the Kilauea volcano in Hawaii erupting and spewing lava.
At least eight people have died and more than 90 others were injured following a catastrophic gas tanker explosion on a major highway in Mexico City’s Iztapalapa district on Wednesday, authorities confirmed.
At least 69 people have died and almost 150 injured following a powerful 6.9-magnitude earthquake off the coast of Cebu City in the central Visayas region of the Philippines, officials said, making it one of the country’s deadliest disasters this year.
A powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula on 13 September with no tsunami threat, coming just weeks after the region endured a devastating 8.8-magnitude quake — the strongest since 1952.
Authorities in California have identified the dismembered body discovered in a Tesla registered to singer D4vd as 15-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez, who had been missing from Lake Elsinore since April 2024.
The currency swap agreement signed between the central banks of Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is set to strengthen Türkiye’s digital banking sector and attract fresh investment from the Gulf.
Shein is opening its first permanent physical stores in France, starting in Paris and expanding to five more cities. The fast-fashion giant aims to test brick-and-mortar retail in one of the world’s most influential fashion markets.
Tesla sales hit a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3 as buyers rushed before the U.S. tax credit expired according to reports. Despite the surge, experts warn the gains may not last amid rising competition.
American soybean farmers are struggling as China, once their largest buyer, shifts purchases to Argentina amid trade tensions and export incentives.
U.S.-based aviation company Boeing is preparing to produce a new narrow-body, single-aisle aircraft to replace its 737 Max model, sources report.
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