From rivalry to cooperation: why Zangezur Corridor matters

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With the historic meeting in Washington emerging as the most significant development in the South Caucasus, all eyes are now set on the future. Yet, beneath the diplomatic milestone for regional peace, one crucial element has received less attention than it deserves: the Zangezur Corridor. This transport route is set to become a vital link that will be one of the key drivers for regional peace and economic prosperity.

In many respects, the corridor is pivotal for the future of the region. It has the potential to become a cornerstone of post-conflict peacebuilding by enhancing connectivity, fostering economic ties, and preventing geopolitical tensions from emerging.

The corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, via Armenian territory, will bring several benefits to the political and economic landscape in the South Caucasus.

From a political standpoint, one of the most significant benefits is the reduced likelihood of renewed hostilities. With both sides becoming integrated into a shared transport project, the cost of political hostilities increases, thus creating a disincentive for potential escalations in the future.

Historic precedents suggest that economically and commercially intertwined nations are less likely to engage in conflicts. A case in point is the European Union. After two deadly world wars fought in Europe, six European states signed a treaty to establish a European Coal and Steel Community, a move widely regarded to be the first step in European integration. Years later, the Community expanded into the EU — a supranational political and economic union.

While the formation of a supranational union in the South Caucasus is unlikely, the countries can learn from the historic example. The implementation of the transport corridor may give both nations a powerful stimulus to cooperate politically and economically.

For countries like Azerbaijan and Armenia, this is of utmost importance. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, both countries have never had an opportunity to engage in a joint economic project. With new opportunities for cooperation, Baku and Yerevan will be able to shift from the legacy of animosity toward a brighter future.

From an economic perspective, the corridor is expected to boost trade flows, reduce the transit time, and create new jobs. For Armenia, this would mean an opportunity to diversify its economy, reinvent itself as a transit country, and improve the country’s regional access.

The benefits will not be limited to Azerbaijan and Armenia. From the perspective of global trade, Azerbaijan and Armenia will solidify the role of the South Caucasus as a key transport artery linking East and West. This will streamline the flow of goods from Asia to Europe, transforming the region into a central hub for transport.

The corridor draws immense attention from several international actors. From the perspective of Türkiye, the route will enable Ankara to link with the Central Asian states. For the Central Asian countries, successful implementation of the Zangezur Corridor will enhance their strategic relevance and political stature in the West, as these countries will be the bridge between Europe and Asia. The EU and China are also highly likely to view the corridor as a positive development, as it will further their connectivity agendas.

However, it would be unwise to tie the future of the region strictly to the implementation of the transport project. A lot will hinge on mutual trust, sustained diplomatic engagement, and the ability to further economic activity between Baku and Yerevan. Infrastructure and transportation alone will not suffice to alleviate the decades of political hostility. However, Baku and Yerevan have a unique opportunity available to them, as the Zangezur Corridor can become a practical blueprint for regional peacebuilding.

One thing is clear – the realism-driven security-first paradigm in the South Caucasus is becoming increasingly outdated. A new school of thought seems to be emerging – one rooted in peacebuilding through economic cooperation. The shift suggests a fundamental change in regional dynamics, giving hope that the next chapter of bilateral relations will be shaped more by pragmatic diplomacy.

It is critical to use the momentum generated by the Washington meeting to transform optimism into actions. Extended delays may erode trust and create opportunities for potential spoilers.

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