Britain’s superposition: in Europe, but not quite

In the year the UN marks 100 years of quantum mechanics, Britain mirrors its paradox: neither fully in nor out of the EU. Trade, travel, and defence bind it to the bloc, despite Brexit. As Starmer seeks closer ties, the UK faces endless negotiations between sovereignty and economic need.

With a touch of historical interpretation, the United Nations is commemorating 2025 as the 100th anniversary of quantum mechanics. It's a fitting moment to revisit the central idea of that enigmatic science: uncertainty at the smallest scales of matter.

Particles — the basic units of reality — can also behave like waves. They exist in multiple states at once, known as “superposition,” until observed. For scientists trained in the classical predictability of Newton’s laws, this blurry, indeterminate view of the universe once seemed almost heretical. Yet quantum theory endures.

Fittingly, no country illustrates this paradox better than Newton’s own. Where does Britain stand in relation to Europe? The answer, much like in quantum theory, remains uncertain. It is out of the EU — and yet, in many respects, it remains deeply intertwined.

Roughly 46 per cent of the UK’s trade still involves the European Union — by far its largest trading partner. Geography, after all, didn’t change in 2016. Regulations made in Brussels continue to shape how Britain trades. Now, under Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour government is working to align more closely with those rules — an economic imperative that comes at the cost of some sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Britons continue to flock to the continent for work and holidays, drawn by proximity. In contrast, the more ideologically appealing “Anglosphere” — the U.S., Canada, Australia — is often financially out of reach unless a think tank is covering the airfare and honorarium. Unsurprisingly, the UK now wants access to EU e-gates at airports in cities like Málaga, Nice, and Rome. In return, the EU is seeking concessions.

Security policy reveals similar patterns. In an age of renewed Russian aggression and an unpredictable United States, Britain is again leaning on Europe — including financially contributing to the EU’s defence initiatives, such as the European Peace Facility.

A future right-leaning government — whether led by the Conservatives or Reform UK — may try to reverse course. But pulling back would almost certainly trigger retaliation from Brussels. That would mean another round of negotiations, another blow to British business and tourism, and another gradual return to closer ties. The cycle would start again.

The reality is that Britain will never definitively “resolve” its relationship with Europe. Life outside the EU is too complex — which is why no other country has chosen to leave. Life inside is also difficult — which is why there’s little appetite for rejoining. What remains is a permanent process of adjustment: a search for stability that never quite succeeds.

In this, Britain increasingly resembles Switzerland — a neutral state locked in continuous talks with Brussels. The Swiss have been negotiating agreements for decades, concession by concession. It's not the worst arrangement — but only if two facts are acknowledged.

First, the direction of travel inevitably points toward Brussels. (Switzerland, notably, is part of the Schengen Area — a privilege the UK never secured, even as a full EU member.)

Second, Switzerland and fellow EU outsiders like Norway enjoy some of the world’s highest standards of living, supported by strong economic models and generous natural resources. Britain, lacking such structural advantages, will feel the consequences of mistakes more acutely — whether in lost trade, weakened diplomacy, or diminished global credibility.

So when people ask, “Is Britain in or out of Europe?” the most honest answer is: “Yes.”

The UK negotiated one of the hardest possible exits. But it remains a country of 67 million, situated right next to a bloc of 450 million. True separation was always going to be more symbolic than material. Leaving was a valid democratic act. Full detachment, however, was never on offer.

The problem began with the 2016 referendum, which forced a binary choice: Leave or Remain. That narrowed a broad spectrum of public opinion into a single, artificial decision. Many voters didn’t think in absolutes — but the ballot required them to.

Now, it falls to Starmer’s government to improve on a post-Brexit deal that polls show only 27 per cent of the public support. He is being advised not to go too far too fast — to avoid reopening old wounds. But the political mood appears to be shifting. The Conservative Party’s cries of “surrender” have made little impact. Public confidence in Brexit has stagnated at around 32–34 per cent since 2022.

In fact, every proposal for closer cooperation — whether through a customs union, single market access, or a broader “special relationship” — outperforms a harder Brexit in public opinion. The electorate seems increasingly open to change. For now, Starmer has political room to manoeuvre.

The backlash from populist factions is familiar — and possibly misguided. It echoes their earlier assumption that most voters regretted the pandemic lockdowns, a sentiment not widely supported by evidence. Once again, they appear to misread the public mood they claim to represent.

Whatever Starmer negotiates, one truth is unavoidable: Britain’s future will be defined by diplomacy with Europe. As long as both the UK and EU exist, so will negotiations. For Brussels, this is a recurring task. For London, it’s an enduring priority. Every step toward the EU involves giving something up. Every step away increases friction.

Even if the UK had remained in the EU, tensions would still exist. Britain would still resist further integration, object to regulations, and debate national sovereignty. The core friction predates Brexit.

Once Britain opted out of the post-war project of European integration, its path became clear: to spend the following decades seeking the least awkward relationship with the project it refused to fully join.

Superposition may define Britain’s stance — caught between the pragmatism of partnership and the pride of distance.

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