As Catholic cardinals prepare to elect a new pope following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, a key question arises: will the papacy return to an Italian after nearly 50 years of foreign leadership?

For centuries, Italians dominated the papacy, holding the position unbroken for 455 years until 1978, when Polish-born John Paul II was elected. Since then, the role has passed to German Pope Benedict and Argentine Pope Francis. Now, with the conclave set to begin on May 7, speculation is growing around several Italian candidates, including Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State; Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna; and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, based in Jerusalem.

Despite Italy’s strong historical ties to the papacy, its influence has declined in recent decades. Italians now make up only 14% of the cardinal electors, compared to 24% in 2013. The Italian vote could be split among multiple candidates, reducing the chance of a united front.

Historian Alberto Melloni pointed out that Italy's failure to back a single candidate in past conclaves contributed to the election of non-Italians. Internal divisions and unwillingness to compromise have often made Italian contenders seem less viable.

Though Italian cardinals avoid openly campaigning, many emphasize that the pope’s origin should matter less than spiritual wisdom. Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco stated that faith and leadership are more important than nationality.

However, a past financial scandal could damage Italy's chances. Cardinal Angelo Becciu, a former top official under Parolin, was dismissed in 2020 and later convicted for financial misconduct involving a London property deal. Although Parolin wasn’t implicated, the scandal has resurfaced, casting a shadow over the Italian bloc. Becciu announced he would not attend the conclave to avoid controversy.

Experts note that the leading Italian candidates have significant international experience, a shift from past traditions. Whether this makes them more acceptable to global cardinals or whether internal tensions will again work against them, remains to be seen in the coming days.

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