Explainer: what are the potential outcomes of Canada's general election?

Canada’s general election, set for April 28, 2025, is shaping up to be a close race between Prime Minister Mark Carney's ruling Liberal Party and the official opposition Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.

With 343 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons, the outcome could shape the country’s political landscape for the next few years. Here are the potential scenarios and their implications:

1. Majority liberal government

A majority government for the Liberals would be the simplest and most stable outcome. Prime Minister Carney would continue his leadership without interruption, appointing a new cabinet and preparing a budget. The government could proceed with its planned policies for the next parliamentary session, ensuring political stability in the short term.

2. Minority liberal government

If the Liberals fall short of a majority, they would need to rely on opposition parties to stay in power. While Carney would still lead the government, he would need to negotiate with other parties, most likely the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), to ensure his government remains in office. However, if the Liberals were significantly short of a majority (e.g., 20 seats), they would need more substantial support to govern. The NDP, which has partnered with the Liberals in the past, could play a key role in keeping the government afloat. A minority government typically faces instability and may not last more than two years before a new election is called.

3. Majority conservative government

A majority win for the Conservatives would allow Poilievre to form a stable government with clear authority. After a brief transition period, Poilievre would be sworn in as prime minister and begin preparing a new budget and the government’s agenda. This scenario would give the Conservatives significant control over the legislative process.

4. Strong minority conservative government

If the Conservatives win a significant number of seats but fall short of a majority, they would face challenges forming a stable government. The lack of natural allies in the House, where most smaller opposition parties are left-leaning, could make it difficult for Poilievre to govern. If Poilievre’s Conservatives are only a few seats short, Carney may resign and allow Poilievre a chance to govern. However, Poilievre would be under pressure to act quickly to prove his ability to lead in the face of economic uncertainty, including potential trade disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs.

5. Weak minority conservative government

If the Conservatives win more seats than the Liberals but still fall short of a majority, Poilievre could be invited to form a government. However, if the Liberals and other opposition parties unite, they could quickly bring down the Conservative government, leading to another election. Such a scenario would likely spark frustration among Conservative supporters, particularly in Western Canada, where the party has traditionally had strong support.

6. Hung parliament with a slight edge to the conservatives

A hung parliament, where the Conservatives win a few more seats than the Liberals but still fail to command a majority, would create significant political uncertainty. While the Conservatives could argue they should govern due to their seat count, the Liberals might seek to form a stable government by aligning with the NDP. This scenario could destabilize Canadian politics, particularly in regions where the federal government is not well-liked, leading to potential unrest.

In the past, a similar situation arose in 2008 when a Conservative minority government was almost overthrown by an alliance between the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois, leading to political chaos. Prime Minister Stephen Harper defused the crisis by requesting a suspension of Parliament, which allowed the situation to cool.

The outcome of the election will be crucial in determining Canada’s political direction for the coming years, with various potential scenarios offering both stability and instability depending on the final seat count and party negotiations.

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