A powerful El Niño weather event could push nearly 49 million more people into acute food insecurity across some of the world's most vulnerable regions by the end of 2027, the UN's World Food Programme (WFP) has warned.
In a report published on Wednesday, the United Nations agency said there is an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures are already at their highest levels since at least 1982, raising the possibility that it could become the strongest El Niño since 1950.
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather patterns worldwide. It is commonly associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoon rains in parts of Asia and irregular rainfall in other regions.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.
WFP analysed conditions in 45 countries considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of El Niño.
The agency estimated the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by nearly 49 million to 274 million, representing a 22 per cent increase on the number already experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions. The number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by 83 per cent in Central America and by nearly 75 per cent in Southern Africa.
Southern Africa, South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people experiencing acute hunger.
Bauer said global food markets entered the El Niño period in a relatively strong position following good harvests in 2025.
However, he warned that conflict in the Middle East and weather-related crop losses could place further upward pressure on food prices.
Previous El Niño events have not generally caused major global food price surges, but regional shortages and higher prices could make food less accessible for vulnerable households, Bauer said.
WFP also warned that funding cuts by U.S. and European donors in 2025 were limiting its ability to monitor the emerging crisis.
Bauer described the decline in available information as a growing drought of food security data, making it more difficult to identify worsening conditions quickly.
WFP conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, compared with roughly 800,000 in 2025. Data collection has fallen further in 2026 because of funding constraints.
“At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection,” Bauer said.
Current forecasts indicate possible rainfall shortages across parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America and the Caribbean.
Flood risks could increase in Somalia and neighbouring areas, while South and Southeast Asia may face drought, uneven monsoon rainfall and localised flooding that could disrupt agricultural production.
WFP stressed that forecasts remain uncertain and that the severity of the impacts will vary between regions.
The agency urged governments and humanitarian organisations to act early to reduce the potential impact on vulnerable communities.
Richard Choularton, director of WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service, said the agency had expanded anticipatory action programmes across 18 countries.
More than 1.3 million people have received cash and other forms of assistance so far this year to help them prepare for extreme weather conditions.
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