U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held two rounds of high-stakes talks in Berlin, Germany on 14-15 December. Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, posted on X that discussions with the U.S. envoy have been "constructive and productive".
However, the demands of each side in the conflict reportedly remain far from fully aligned.
Speaking to AnewZ from Lisbon, Portugal, political analyst Ana Evans highlighted the complexity of the issue, emphasising that any resolution ultimately depends on both sides, with Russia holding significant leverage.
“It depends on what Russia is offered because Russia ultimately has the veto power here. Ukraine, of course, has a word. Nothing can be done without Ukraine,” Evans said.
She noted that the Kremlin will only consider ending the war if it receives a package of benefits that compensates for halting hostilities without appearing to have lost the conflict.
Evans explained that Russia continues to sustain its war effort through financial and political support from China, as well as allies in the Global South, Iran, and North Korea.
She added that Moscow has the capacity to wait longer than Kyiv, making a negotiated settlement contingent on highly persuasive incentives.
“So, unless it receives a very convincing gift of interests, which might involve third countries, not just Ukraine — considering Russia’s strategic stakes in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa — the war is likely to continue,” she said.
Evans emphasised that any package would need to be substantial enough to align with Russia’s broader geopolitical ambitions and preserve its leverage.
According to Evans, the current battlefield dynamics and diplomatic efforts alone are unlikely to bring the war to a close in 2026.
The continuation of hostilities, she noted, reflects Russia’s capacity to withstand pressure while maintaining influence across multiple regions, underlining the challenges facing negotiators seeking a sustainable peace.
Status of negotiations
At this point, U.S. negotiators are reportedly still pressing Ukraine to cede control of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a condition for peace talks with Russia, AFP reported according to an official briefed on the discussions.
Kyiv is resisting Washington’s demand that it withdraw troops from the two regions, collectively known as Donbas, which Russia has struggled to fully capture since its invasion in February 2022.
The official told AFP that Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants territory,” while the United States is insisting that Ukraine pull back, a proposal Kyiv is refusing to accept.
“It’s a bit striking that the Americans are taking the Russians’ position on this issue,” the official added.
Currently, Moscow controls nearly all of Luhansk and approximately 80 percent of Donetsk, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.
Meanwhile, a poll published today by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), based on 550 respondents, found that 75 percent of Ukrainians oppose giving up Donbas.
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U.S. President Donald Trump said a preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf has been signed by the U.S. and Iran, though details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce is yet to be negotiated.
Lithuania’s ruling Social Democratic Party has said its chairman, Mindaugas Sinkevicius, is preparing to become the country’s next prime minister, replacing Inga Ruginiene.
China’s retail sales fell for the first time in more than three years in May, while urban investment contracted more than expected, signaling further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy.
Start your day informed with the AnewZ Morning Brief. Here are the top stories for 16 June, covering the latest developments you need to know.
Details of a reported draft memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran offer the clearest picture yet of how both sides plan to end months of conflict and move towards a longer-term settlement.
The U.S. and Iran say they have reached a deal to end their conflict, with an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Talks will continue over the next 60 days to finalise the agreement
A senior U.S. official said on Monday that the memorandum of understanding linked to the U.S.-Iran agreement had been signed by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told U.S. President Donald Trump that Israel does not consider itself bound by a Lebanon-related provision in an emerging agreement with Iran, according to Israeli officials.
A strong 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia's Sulawesi island early Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring four, according to emergency authorities.
Lithuania’s ruling Social Democratic Party has said its chairman, Mindaugas Sinkevicius, is preparing to become the country’s next prime minister, replacing Inga Ruginiene.
The United Kingdom has imposed a new wave of sanctions on Russia, targeting key financial institutions, logistics networks and vessels accused of helping Moscow sustain its war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has said it struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Moscow region, marking one of the deepest reported attacks into Russian territory in recent months.
A strong 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Indonesia's Sulawesi island early Tuesday, killing at least one person and injuring four, according to emergency authorities.
A Chinese-linked hacking group secretly stole data from academic, medical and military research institutions in the U.S. and Canada for more than a year before being discovered, according to a report published by Google on Monday.
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