U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held two rounds of high-stakes talks in Berlin, Germany on 14-15 December. Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, posted on X that discussions with the U.S. envoy have been "constructive and productive".
However, the demands of each side in the conflict reportedly remain far from fully aligned.
Speaking to AnewZ from Lisbon, Portugal, political analyst Ana Evans highlighted the complexity of the issue, emphasising that any resolution ultimately depends on both sides, with Russia holding significant leverage.
“It depends on what Russia is offered because Russia ultimately has the veto power here. Ukraine, of course, has a word. Nothing can be done without Ukraine,” Evans said.
She noted that the Kremlin will only consider ending the war if it receives a package of benefits that compensates for halting hostilities without appearing to have lost the conflict.
Evans explained that Russia continues to sustain its war effort through financial and political support from China, as well as allies in the Global South, Iran, and North Korea.
She added that Moscow has the capacity to wait longer than Kyiv, making a negotiated settlement contingent on highly persuasive incentives.
“So, unless it receives a very convincing gift of interests, which might involve third countries, not just Ukraine — considering Russia’s strategic stakes in the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa — the war is likely to continue,” she said.
Evans emphasised that any package would need to be substantial enough to align with Russia’s broader geopolitical ambitions and preserve its leverage.
According to Evans, the current battlefield dynamics and diplomatic efforts alone are unlikely to bring the war to a close in 2026.
The continuation of hostilities, she noted, reflects Russia’s capacity to withstand pressure while maintaining influence across multiple regions, underlining the challenges facing negotiators seeking a sustainable peace.
Status of negotiations
At this point, U.S. negotiators are reportedly still pressing Ukraine to cede control of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a condition for peace talks with Russia, AFP reported according to an official briefed on the discussions.
Kyiv is resisting Washington’s demand that it withdraw troops from the two regions, collectively known as Donbas, which Russia has struggled to fully capture since its invasion in February 2022.
The official told AFP that Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants territory,” while the United States is insisting that Ukraine pull back, a proposal Kyiv is refusing to accept.
“It’s a bit striking that the Americans are taking the Russians’ position on this issue,” the official added.
Currently, Moscow controls nearly all of Luhansk and approximately 80 percent of Donetsk, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.
Meanwhile, a poll published today by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), based on 550 respondents, found that 75 percent of Ukrainians oppose giving up Donbas.
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U.S. President Donald Trump says Washington is not seeking an extension of its memorandum of understanding with Iran, claiming the U.S. already controls the Strait of Hormuz through its naval blockade.
Iran has said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the U.S. fulfils the terms of an interim deal, including lifting the maritime blockade and sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets.
Ukraine has targeted at least 20 Wildberries warehouses across Russia since 18 July, disrupting a major logistics network. Kyiv says the strikes aim to disrupt alleged military-linked supplies, while the attacks have caused billions of dollars in losses and wider economic pressure.
South Korea's presidential Blue House said on Monday it was reviewing U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on scaling back joint military drills. It added that it hoped a favourable relationship between Washington and Pyongyang could lead to meaningful talks.
Azerbaijan exported goods worth $17.372 million to Armenia between January and July 2026, according to data from the State Customs Committee, as commercial ties between the two South Caucasus neighbours showed signs of expansion.
Britain will continue to support Ukraine “100 per cent” against Russia’s invasion, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said on Tuesday, after Moscow warned London of consequences over reports that British-made drones had been used in strikes on Russian territory.
Russia has summoned Japan’s ambassador to Moscow and delivered a strong protest over what it called “anti-Russian” remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi concerning four disputed islands.
Pakistan is turning to more U.S. crude as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz exposes the risks of its heavy reliance on Gulf energy supplies.
U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander Xavier Brunson visited South Korea's Defence Ministry on Tuesday to discuss plans to scale back the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise, according to media reports.
European countries are stepping up investment in drones and counter-drone technology as unmanned systems reshape modern warfare, driving demand for new production and capabilities across the continent.
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