Centrist liberal party D66, led by 38-year-old Rob Jetten, has made sweeping gains in the Dutch election, emerging neck and neck with Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) in early results — a stunning reversal just two years after D66 ranked sixth.

With 98% of votes counted from Wednesday’s election, D66 and Wilders’ PVV were tied early on Thursday, with both projected to win 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament - a sharp fall for Wilders from his record 37 seats in 2023 and a dramatic surge for D66, which nearly tripled its total.

The result puts Jetten, 38, on course to lead the next government as the Netherlands’ youngest and first openly gay prime minister, while leaving Wilders with no path to a majority. All major mainstream parties have ruled out governing with him after he brought down the last coalition, which was led by his own party.

Cheers and chants of “Yes, we can” broke out at D66’s election night celebration as supporters waved Dutch flags.

“We’ve shown not only to the Netherlands, but also to the world that it is possible to beat populist and extreme right movements,” Jetten told the crowd.

“Millions of Dutch people today turned a page and said farewell to the politics of negativity, of hate, of endless ‘No we can’t.’”

For Wilders, the outcome marks a sharp reversal of fortune. His anti-immigration PVV, which dominated polls for much of the campaign, lost momentum after abandoning its own coalition plans in June over asylum and migration disputes.

Tough coalition talks ahead

Parties will now begin talks on forming the next government, though with less than 3,000 votes separating the top two, the final result could take days to confirm. Traditionally, the party with the most votes is tasked by parliament with leading coalition negotiations.

The Dutch election was seen as a test of whether Europe’s far right could extend its reach or whether its appeal had peaked. The outcome suggests limits to its growth — and a possible revival for the political centre.

Jetten, who campaigned on housing, education, and immigration reform, ran a polished, optimistic campaign that resonated with younger and urban voters frustrated by political stagnation.

During the campaign, D66 proposed building 10 new cities to tackle the country’s chronic housing shortage of nearly 400,000 homes, while promising to invest in education and manage immigration more effectively.

One potential coalition scenario includes D66, the Christian Democrats, the centre-right VVD, and the Green–Labour alliance — though negotiations could take months. The last government took nearly 300 days to form.

Former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans resigned as leader of the Green–Labour party after disappointing exit poll results, which projected his alliance dropping to 20 seats, down from 25 in 2023 — highlighting the challenges faced by the left.

Wilders vows to fight on

Wilders acknowledged the setback but said he would continue to push his agenda from the opposition benches.

“Of course we would have liked to win more seats and I regret the loss, but it’s not as if we were wiped off the map,” he said.

On social media, he added that as long as results were not final, “D66 can’t take the lead. We will do everything we can to prevent that.”

Vote counting continued on Thursday in regions that traditionally lean toward both parties, including parts of Amsterdam, where D66 is stronger, and Limburg, where PVV maintains support. Results from the Dutch Caribbean islands of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba were still expected and could marginally affect the final seat distribution.

At the D66 rally in The Hague, 25-year-old supporter Lotte van Slooten said:

“I’m very excited that we’re going to have the first homosexual prime minister in the Netherlands — and one that’s combining all the positive forces.”

A comeback for the political centre

Analysts say the election underscores a shift back toward centrist, pro-European politics after a turbulent period dominated by populism and polarisation.

“It was a campaign of optimism… the Dutch are tired of two years of standstill. We want progress,” said D66 supporter Eline.

For now, Rob Jetten’s victory represents a potential turning point — not just for the Netherlands, but for European politics more broadly, where centrist parties are seeking to reclaim momentum from the populist right.

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