Dutch vote in test of European populism's reach

Dutch voters headed to the polls on Wednesday to decide whether to continue the anti-immigration nationalism championed by populist leader Geert Wilders, who collapsed the previous conservative coalition after two turbulent years, or to steer the country back towards the political centre.

With nationalist movements gaining traction in Britain, France, and Germany, the Dutch election serves as a barometer for whether Europe’s populist momentum is still rising or beginning to wane.

Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) secured a shock victory in the 2023 election, forming an all-conservative coalition though his partners refused to endorse him as prime minister. He eventually brought down the government in June over its rejection of his hardline refugee policies.

Tight race in opinion polls

Recent opinion polls show that Wilders’ once substantial lead has evaporated, leaving his party neck and neck with rivals across the political spectrum. The mainstream centre-right VVD and Christian Democrats, along with other major parties, have ruled out joining a coalition with Wilders, meaning he would only be able to form a government if his party wins by an unexpectedly large margin.

Polling stations opened early, some as soon as 6:30 a.m. (05:30 GMT), to accommodate commuters, with the first exit poll, typically a reliable indicator due after voting closes at 9 p.m.

Coalition talks expected to be complex

Dutch politics have become increasingly fragmented, making the formation of stable coalitions an arduous process that often stretches over weeks or even months. Nearly half of voters were still undecided in the days leading up to the vote, according to surveys.

Wilders, one of Europe’s most established populist figures, is best known for his anti-Islam stance and lives under constant security protection due to death threats. His proposals include rejecting all asylum applications, sending male Ukrainian refugees back home, and diverting development aid to fund domestic energy and healthcare subsidies—measures that would contravene EU law.

Moderates and new voices seek momentum

Centre-left party D66, led by Rob Jetten, 38, has gained ground with a campaign built around optimism and renewal. Drawing comparisons to Barack Obama’s “Yes, we can” message, Jetten has called for large-scale housing construction and greater investment in education, while pledging to move political debate beyond endless wrangling over migration.

“What the Netherlands is suffering from is 20 years of the same political talk about asylum without any results,” Jetten said during the final televised debate. “My ambition is that in four years we won’t need to keep talking about asylum because we’ll have fixed it.”

Wilders’ support softens

In Volendam, a fishing town near Amsterdam and a traditional Wilders stronghold, many voters remained loyal to the populist leader despite the previous coalition’s failure to deliver tougher immigration controls or resolve the housing shortage.

“We need to be able to look after our own people first, and that’s why I’m voting for PVV,” said Jaap Schilder, a 40-year-old fishmonger and local politician.

Still, Wilders’ support has slipped, with some voters gravitating towards the Christian Democrats under Henri Bontenbal, who is campaigning on stability and traditional values. Analysts say the decline reflects frustration over political infighting and concern over Wilders’ outspoken admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump, whose leadership style and democratic brinkmanship have unsettled Dutch moderates.

“I wouldn’t sleep well at night,” said Greta Blakborn, a Volendam pensioner and Labour–Green Left activist, when asked about the prospect of a Wilders-led government.

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